“It’s the economy, stupid,” has been a political mantra for more than two decades. Nowadays, the phrase is repeated ad nauseam in development discussions. However, making countries flourish is not so simple.
There is a wealth of literature describing the various factors that determine prosperity. In their widely discussed book released last year, Why Nations Fail, the economist Daron Acemoglu and the political scientist James Robinson emphasized the importance of inclusive political and economic institutions. According to the economist Angus Deaton’s new book The Great Escape, health is a key.
The just-released Legatum Prosperity Index points to another fundamental condition for success: good governance and the rule of law. As Program Director Nathan Gamester said: “It pays to be a democracy.”
Twenty-seven of the world’s top 30 most prosperous countries are democracies. This is not true of the bottom 30.
Consider the development disparities in Africa. Countries such as Botswana that have accountable governments, respect for the rule of law, established property rights and independent judiciaries fare far better than their counterparts. However, most countries on the continent fall into the “counterpart” category, with 24 of the bottom 30 countries in the Prosperity Index located in sub-Saharan Africa.
Most of these countries suffer a significant “democratic deficit.” In Equatorial Guinea, for example, President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has been in power since 1979, making him Africa’s longest-serving ruler. In just over three decades, his regime has managed to turn a tiny, oil-rich country into a development disaster. The vast majority of Equatorial Guineans have severely limited access to clean water, education and health care. The country has one of the world’s highest child-mortality rates with one out of every five children dying before their fifth birthday.
Despite such examples — of which there are plenty — there is a school of thought that argues that the clumsy inclusiveness of the democratic process impedes economic development. Of course, it is true that democracy is not always efficient — just ask Americans, whose government was recently shut down for 16 days and nearly defaulted on its debt as a result of partisan policy disagreements. However, democratic systems based on good governance and the rule of law are more conducive to prosperity than any of the alternatives.
China’s unprecedented economic rise, which has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the last three decades, was a result of economic decentralization and freer, more competitive markets — not clever government planning, as some like to claim. China’s future will almost certainly be characterized by more democracy and a strengthening of the rule of law — the country’s emerging middle-class will see to that. This shift will prove vital to consolidating and building upon economic gains.
Similarly, in Latin America, the consolidation of democratic governments over the past three decades has progressed in lock-step with economic development. Chile, Costa Rica and Uruguay all have positive stories to tell in this year’s Prosperity Index.
When governance is effective and the rule of law is strong, good things start to happen in other areas, including the economy. Botswanans, for example, report high levels of confidence in their country’s elections (83 percent, compared with the sub-Saharan regional average of just 47 percent) and judicial system (83 percent, compared with 53 percent).