Sat, Jan 19, 2013 - Page 8 News List

Stakes high for Xi over Diaoyutais

By Paul Lin 林保華

Although Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and Xi collaborated to stop Liu Yuan (劉源), a PLA general and politician, from joining the CCP’s Central Military Commission during the party’s 18th National Congress last year, many of the younger generation in the military still support disgraced former Chongqing party boss Bo Xilai (薄熙來).

There are also special interest groups that worry that Xi’s expected reforms will hurt their interests. If Xi’s policy of bringing China and Japan to the brink of war gets out of control, these people could create a lot of trouble, maybe even forcing Xi to step down.

If Japan were to lose any conflict, there would be a change of prime ministers or another election. However, if Xi were to step down, the ensuing power struggle within the CCP would result in chaos and would be much nastier than anything witnessed during the 18th National Congress.

In the end, this could even lead China’s various autonomous regions to start fighting to gain more power, as happened during the Qing Dynasty and the ensuing Xinhai revolution. However, this could also be the best chance for furthering democratization in China and it could be a great opportunity for Taiwan.

Paul Lin is a political commentator.

Translated by Drew Cameron

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