Tue, Dec 25, 2012 - Page 9 News List

Desire for growth forcing central banks to review inflation targets

Slow recovery from the world economic crisis is causing the worlds major banks to review their policies in an attempt to prevent inflation risks

By Jonathan Spicer  /  Reuters, NEW YORK

North of the border, the Bank of Canada has long had an inflation target of 2 percent within a range of 1 to 3 percent.

However, unlike past BOC governors, Carney has emphasized the idea of “flexible targeting” in which inflation could be allowed to stray from the target for longer than would normally be tolerated in order to stabilize financial markets or the economy.

Carney said earlier this month that the BOC explored the idea of changing its inflation targeting mandate altogether, but decided it was too risky. He stressed he was not dropping hints about his plans for Britain, yet BOE policymakers were quick to push back on any notion the country should change its approach to policy.

Paul Fisher, the BOE’s executive director for markets, said Britain should be wary of changing the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target and had no need to adopt the longer-term commitments its North American counterparts have made on interest rates.

However, while BOE chief economist Spencer Dale warned “there is no free lunch” when it comes to changing the central bank’s target, British Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne surprised some when he welcomed Carney’s opening of the debate.

“If you want to change the regime you have to make a pretty strong case for doing so,” Osborne told members of parliament.

In July, Carney will replace King, considered among the last of the old guard of inflation-fighting central bankers — despite mixed success in that regard — which also included Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and Trichet.

Draghi, who succeeded Trichet last year, has been careful to stick to the ECB’s price stability mantra, which is enshrined in the EU treaty and fiercely defended by Germans who are still haunted by the memory of hyperinflation in the 1920s.

Yet he has also flooded the financial sector with more than 1 trillion euros (US$1.31 trillion) this year and pledged to buy euro zone government bonds in whatever amounts are needed to shore up the currency bloc.

Two hardline ECB policymakers, Axel Weber and Juergen Stark, resigned last year over the bank’s previous bond-buying program. The pair said they felt it strayed into the realm of fiscal policy and could ultimately pose inflation risks.

In Japan, Shirakawa is under unusually explicit pressure from the next likely prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to boost the BOJ’s inflation target to 2 percent, from 1 percent, to help battle the deflation that has mired the country for the past 15 years.

Abe’s party was swept to power on Sunday last week in part on a pledge of “unlimited” monetary easing to achieve higher inflation.

In a private meeting on Tuesday last week, Shirakawa was said to have sat in silence as Abe reiterated his request for the BOJ to boost its inflation target. The BOJ duly delivered its third shot of monetary stimulus in four months earlier on Thursday. Masaaki Kanno, a former colleague of Shirakawa at the BOJ and now chief economist at JPMorgan Securities in Japan, says Shirakawa will be the last “normal” BOJ governor, one who worries about the risks posed by printing money.

“There are more and more people in Japan who want deflation to be eliminated and feel that the BOJ should be forced to use its ‘magic wand’ to create inflation,” Kanno said.

“The only option left for Japan might be for the BOJ to print money by buying more bonds,” he added. “If that’s what the public wants, [Shirakawa’s] successor will probably have to go down that route.”

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