During the funeral ceremonies for North Korean leader Kim Jong-il last week, the man in charge of the isolated state’s missile program and possibly its nuclear plans, paid a quiet visit to the mausoleum where the body lay in state.
Little is known about elderly and silver-haired Ju Kyu-chang, but he appears to be a key member of the North Korean team developing nuclear weapons.
The EU has named the 73-year-old, who is believed to have trained as a metal alloy specialist and studied in Russia, as one of the individual North Koreans to attract sanctions slapped on the rogue communist state.
He was given two important posts in the regime in recent years, which analysts say were part of Kim Jong-il’s moves after he suffered a stroke to set a succession plan in place and ensure safe custody of the nuclear weapons.
“I would equate Ju with General Leslie Groves, who headed the US Manhattan Project that produced atomic bombs during World War II,” said Larry Niksch, who has tracked North Korea for the non-partisan US Congressional Research Service for 43 years.
“Ju runs the day-to-day programs to develop missiles and probably nuclear weapons,” Niksch said.
RANKING
Ju was ranked 20th on the list of the national funeral committee for Kim Jong-il, an indicator of his stature. Just above him in 19th position was Jang Song-thaek, the uncle of new leader Kim Jong-un and the man seen as the power behind the throne.
According to the EU, Ju had oversight of the two tests of North Korea’s intermediate-range Taepodong-2 ballistic missiles in 2006 and 2009. Less is known about his connection to the development of nuclear weapons.
However, the International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a 2009 report on North Korea that Ju “is believed to be in charge of the nuclear weapons development program.”
It said Ju’s 2009 promotion to the National Defense Commission (NDC), the supreme leadership council, was probably linked to a move to put him in charge of an independent entity with custody of North Korea’s nuclear bombs when they were developed.
Daniel Pinkston, one of the authors of the ICG report, said there was no information on whether the new “command and control” body for nuclear weapons had been set up.
However, he said of Ju: “He is close to the regime leadership because of his political loyalty to the Kim family and the party, in addition to his technical expertise regarding the SLV [space launch vehicle] and satellite programs and the nuclear weapons program.”
MACHINE-BUILDING
Officially, Ju is director of the oddly named Korean Workers’ Party Machine-Building Industry Department, which he has been associated with since the 1960s, but his power stems from the NDC post and also his being named to the Workers’ Party Central Military Commission in 2010.
He accompanied Kim Jong-il on a trip to Russia, according to media reports.
“Ju is in charge of managing the North’s ballistic missiles,” said Cho Min, at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.
“Some people think he may be involved in the North’s nuclear programs, but I am less confident about that. But on the other hand, ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons are inseparable,” Cho said.
Analysts say Kim Jong-un will be in no hurry to make any changes and that Ju should remain in place for some time.
“The fact that he is still there means his father [Kim Jong-il] gave him the seal of approval as others considered threats or not loyal enough were replaced or retired over the past year or two,” said Ralph Cossa, president of the US think tank Pacific Forum CSIS. “Not sure where he fits in the pecking order, but he is clearly among the top rung.”
CALLING THE SHOTS
However, Ju is likely to have not much more than a bit part in any decision on the actual deployment of missiles or nuclear weapons.
Kim Jong-un and the close coterie around him, including his uncle Jang, aunt Kim Kyong-hui and military chief Ri Yong-ho, are likely to call the shots.
Kim Jong-un has already been named the supreme commander of the military and “should have ultimate command and control of the nuclear arsenal,” Pinkston said. “I believe that is the case.”
The unpredictable state, which threatened on Friday to turn South Korea into “a sea of revengeful fire,” has rattled the region with two nuclear tests in the past five years and its missile program.
It is believed to have about 700 short-range Scud-type missiles and about 320 medium-range Nodongs. It is said to have amassed enough plutonium for about half a dozen bombs, but is now believed to be working on producing highly enriched uranium, the other kind of fissile material used in nuclear bombs.
Niksch says the North probably would need as little as one to two years to miniaturize and mount a nuclear warhead atop its medium-range Nodong missile once it has produced enough highly enriched uranium.
Additional reporting by Jim Wolf and Jack Kim
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry