Several days ago Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislative candidate Su Jun-pin (蘇俊賓) said a vote for People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) was a vote for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文). President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) campaign is clearly worried and regards Soong’s candidacy as dangerous.
Soong is marketing himself as being above the pan-blue/pan-green divide, but in reality his support comes mostly from pan-blue voters, something he is well aware of and working to exploit to the full. Whereas the KMT is abandoning its traditional base, Soong is digging deep into the foundations of pan-blue support. It is against this background that the fight within the pan-blue camp rages.
Soong registered as a presidential candidate on Thursday morning last week. In the afternoon, Ma went to the Touliao Mausoleum, where former president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國) is buried, to “report to Chiang.”
This was a transparent ploy to appeal to pan-blue supporters, to highlight that it is Ma who subscribes to KMT orthodoxy and not Soong. He then had an interview with the BBC, in which he played the unification card. It goes without saying that Soong is sidling up to the deep-blues.
If one is to believe the PFP, Soong appeals to moderate or light blue and green voters, and so he needs to tread carefully when discussing unification and independence. Why is it so difficult for Ma to convince people to give him a second crack of the whip? Incompetence is one, but the main reason is most people reject the idea of eventual unification.
Numerous opinion polls indicate that Ma’s support started to dip after Oct. 17, when he announced a possible peace accord with China. He promptly corrected himself, but the damage was already done. Soong, as cunning as ever, used this moment to show his pro-unification colors, gunning for the pan-blue vote.
That Soong is now in a strong position is not so much because of his own ability as Ma’s incompetence. After four years of Ma, the public has had enough. Soong now has the chance to draw his sword once more, but whether he is able to inflict a mortal wound on Ma depends on how much vitriol and personal attacks the pan-blue pro-unification media subject him to.
How many votes can Soong get? Nobody in their right mind would bet on the outcome, but the point is not how many of Ma’s votes he can steal: He might not damage Ma’s election prospects, but his only concern is to be able to compete against Ma. The Jan. 14 presidential election will offer a standard by which to measure his success in this. It is often said it is the journey, not the arriving, that matters, and so it is with Soong’s election bid.
Given that Soong’s votes will basically come from pan-blue supporters, it makes sense for him to attack Ma. Based on press reports, Soong is laying into Ma 80 percent of the time and Tsai only 20 percent, in tune with his election strategy. Comparing his own strong record as former Taiwan governor with Ma’s poor performance as president adds weight to Tsai’s own criticisms of Ma, and consolidates the general impression of Ma’s shortcomings. This is far more effective than taking Tsai on.
Soong’s entrance has also drawn the brunt of attacks from the pan-blue press away from Tsai and onto Soong, particularly in the case of the political call-in programs. The pan-blue camp seems to be making an art form out of infighting.
As things start to look bad for Ma, the pan-blue camp is trying to cast Soong as a “sinner,” but this is not entirely fair. The real “sinner” of the pan-blue camp is Ma, not Soong. He has only himself to blame.
Chin Heng-wei is a political commentator.
Translated by Paul Cooper
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry