According to the latest Scientific report on climate change in Taiwan 2011 directed by the climate change team of the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, future rainfall will result in the dry season becoming drier and the wet season becoming wetter, while temperatures will rise drastically. This will pose a threat to agriculture and public safety.
In his investigation of the impact of paleoclimate on agriculture, Academia Sinica member Ho Ping-ti (何炳棣) said only fertile land where people reside generation after generation can produce a highly developed clan system.
Current stability is the result of a long period of stable climate and environment. Take China, for example, which claims to be a strong power. However, the problems exposed in its environment are quite shocking. On the Tibetan Plateau, summer used to be the time for snow to melt, but what should be the rainy season has now become hot. Looking toward Mount Everest, residents point to the area of bare rock where the snow line used to be, and it is creeping higher and higher every year. Highway 318 reaches barren, snow-free areas at an elevation of 6,000m as climate change forebodes a future environmental backlash.
Recently, Thailand has suffered serious floods. Because summer floods have traditionally often led to plentiful harvests, most Thais have no concept of flood prevention. As a result, post-disaster flood prevention strategies only offer a temporary solution to the problem, not a permanent cure. The strategies include compensation of 5,000 baht (US$161) for each household, 50 percent wages for 620,000 workers, and US$1.2 billion for flood control.
As for the foreign firms that have been affected, the Thai government is making plans for compensation for them. This would affect the rights of major Taiwanese original equipment manufacturers invested there, such as Min Aik Technology Co and Cal-Comp Electronics and Communications, as well as other foreign firms. Most disaster reviews and risk management adjustments are incomplete.
A disaster prevention policy needs cross-disciplinary integration, and this year’s UN Climate Change Conference, which will be held in South Africa from Monday to Dec. 8, offers a great opportunity for cross-disciplinary exchanges. Scientists and the private sector should work together to provide vision and professionalism.
As Sun Tzu (孫子) said in The Art of War (孫子兵法), “The highest form of leadership is to win by strategy.” If we promote reform in times of peace, we can avoid populism when a major disaster suddenly hits.
Eighteenth-century British historian Edward Gibbon believed populism was like religion, saying: “The various modes of worship which prevailed in the Roman world were all considered by the people as equally true; by the philosopher as equally false; and by the magistrate as equally useful.”
From the floods caused by Typhoon Morakot in August 2009 to the Thai floods, the governments involved have ignored professionalism to cater to public opinion. They have distributed resources unevenly and focused almost exclusively on post-disaster work. This is likely to result in a policy oriented toward using soil to control floods.
Hsieh Chia-ying is a research assistant of the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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