At the same time as the US faces the growing threat of strategic defeat by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in East Asia, internal and external trends are pushing the People’s Republic of China toward an expansionist military agenda. China’s increasing reliance on imports over the next 30 years will make it more likely to engage in military action to secure access to important markets.
China is running low on the most precious commodity any nation has — water. The director of Peking University’s water research center, Zheng Chunmiao (鄭春苗), said recently that China must drastically cut its usage of water over the next 30 years or it will face a “dire situation.”
To do so, Zheng said China needs to reduce food production in favor of imports, a move that would be much more economical for Beijing, but one that contains many political risks and raises food security concerns.
If China relied on imports for a good portion of its food needs, what would happen if there were to be a disruption in supplies that could have been prevented by military means?
In addition to feeding its multitudes, China’s ever-growing economic machine needs to consume vast amounts of raw materials, many of which are imported — a situation that has fueled an economic boom in Brazil and Australia.
However, as the cost of raw materials such as boxite and rubber continues to rise, China will come under increasing pressure to influence source countries and thereby to secure raw materials at the lowest price possible.
What better way to do this than through military intimidation, a tactic the US has used for years in Central America?
China is likely over the next 30 years to use its growing military power to influence the outcome of economic deals in its favor. To feed its people and promote economic growth, China needs energy in ever-increasing amounts. Despite a push toward green energy, Beijing will continue to rely heavily on traditional energy sources — oil, coal and gas — as the sustainable power industry is still in its infancy and nuclear generation is proving risky.
Like food and raw materials, energy is also increasing in price every year and a great deal of it comes from countries wracked by political turmoil. Like the US, China will be increasingly tempted to secure oil pumps and coal mines in far-flung parts of the world, such as Nigeria, using bullets, bombs and boots.
Because of this trinity of needs — food, raw materials and energy — it is not only tempting for China to project military might overseas, it is essential. Beijing cannot tolerate the risk of disruptions to its supplies.
With a population of 1.3 billion people, even minor disruptions would spell disaster for millions and cause already simmering undertones of anger at the government to boil over. Chinese academics and military planners know this, so there is no doubt they have factored overseas expansion into their plans.
These trends are pushing China toward taking a role as a global power simply to secure the resources it needs to keep its population docile and hardworking.
The first thing China needs to do is to secure its sea lanes, and to do that it needs Taiwan.
So much for China’s peaceful rise.
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