The five special municipality elections on Nov. 27 are little more than a month away. The pan-blue and pan-green camps see the elections as a prelude to the 2012 presidential election and are constantly issuing propaganda, creating issues and fighting a proxy war through various organizations. They see the elections in Taipei and Sinbei cities (the new designation to be given to Taipei County after the election), where the pan-blue camp long has enjoyed a majority over the pan-green camp, as crucial.
There is little doubt that the November elections will affect Taiwan’s future political development. The local government elections late last year and the legislative by-elections early this year created a pendulum effect that changed the political lay of the land, and it might even have set the stage for a landslide victory for the pan-green camp.
The five special municipality elections are a competition between the ability of the different candidates to run a local government. Voters are concerned about the candidates’ governance capabilities and their vision for the cities. Ironically, in planning its election strategy, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) has learned from the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) strategies during Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) presidency and hope that this will help it use the cross-strait issue and the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) to boost its support base and ratings.
Perhaps this approach is the result of the pan-blue camp’s shrinking support base. Their supporters, especially the dark blue supporters, have all been greatly disappointed with the performance of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and his government over the past two and a half years. As a consequence, they may not vote even if that makes them feel bad.
Opinion polls show that 90 percent of pro-green supporters have returned to the green camp, while only 70 percent of pro-blue supporters have done so. The latter showed much enthusiasm and high expectations during the 2008 presidential election, but due to the government’s poor performance and the resulting gap between their original expectations and the current reality, that enthusiasm has waned. As pro-green supporters unite, the green camp could win both Taipei and Sinbei cities.
The blue camp, which is worried by the prospect of losing the elections, has decided to try to force a “blue-green confrontation” in order to bring into play the majority of support they supposedly enjoy in northern Taiwan. Since the ECFA is one of Ma’s key policies, it has become the focus of the campaign. However, the blue camp has made a critical mistake here: The ECFA effect reached its climax with the signing on June 30, but by playing up the issue for too long, its appeal has declined ever since. The public has already made up its mind about the agreement. For voters focused on the economy, the ECFA early harvest list will not come into effect until January, and they are now cold to the agreement until they can see the effects.
Furthermore, the blue camp optimistically believes the 2010 Taipei International Flora Exposition will breathe life into Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin’s (郝龍斌) and the KMT’s election campaign when it opens on Nov. 6. However, this ignores the fact that whether the flora expo brings momentum to the election campaign will depend on the public’s impression of the event rather than its success. If the expo causes traffic jams and disorder following the opening, the event will not necessarily be a plus for Hau. In particular, the public’s questions over his administrative team and his ability to govern will hardly be resolved by one successful event.
At the moment, the green camp seems to have the upper hand and it may now risk losing some voter support if it adopts a radical and provocative campaign strategy. That is why it is unwilling to be lured into a traditional blue-green confrontation and why it refuses to do battle with the blue camp in a head-to-head fight.
As the elections approach, the two camps continue to propose campaign issues and dazzle with their adverts, but this is too much for some voters who would prefer a return to basics, such as their impression and views of the different candidates. The DPP’s candidate for Taipei City, Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌), is competent and has created an image of daring and resolution as a former Taipei County commissioner. The party’s candidate for Sinbei City, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), is rational, pragmatic and reliable politically. Naturally, voters are willing to give the party a chance.
Still, the DPP should not be too excited if it wins in the five municipality elections. The real challenge for the party will come after the elections, not before.
After several elections over the past two and a half years, the DPP has gradually left behind the burden created by former president Chen and instead managed to find its own direction. Can the party stabilize and develop more pragmatic policies to satisfy the public’s needs so as not to repeat the past mistake of creating great expectations, which only lead to great disappointments? This will be the key factor that determines whether the party can mature at a steady pace.
Hong Chi-chang is a former chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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