The South China Sea is emerging as another problem area. In the 1990s, China passed domestic legislation proclaiming sovereignty over this area. However, a number of other countries in the region have competing claims.
Under a 2002 proposal, China agreed to resolve these issues peacefully through diplomacy, but has now declared the South China Sea a “core national interest” and hence beyond negotiation.
In other words, China might in its “national interest” restrict or control the passage of foreign ships in these waters, through which one-third of all commercial shipping is said to pass.
China is challenging the dominance of the US Navy on national security grounds. Indeed, Beijing’s view is succinctly expressed in a comment, reported in the Economist: “A retired Chinese admiral likened the American Navy to a man with a criminal record ‘wandering just outside the gate of a family home.’”
In other words, trouble is brewing in the Asia-Pacific as China seeks to dethrone the US as the dominant power in the region.
There is a strong belief among many Chinese that it is the nation’s destiny to regain former glories. As retired general Xu Guangyu (徐光宇) recently told the South China Morning Post: “China’s long absence from its exclusive economic waters over the past decades was an abnormal historical accident and now it is just advancing to normal operations.”
China seems engaged in a concerted campaign to whip up national hysteria, spearheaded by serving and retired generals. Major General Luo Yuan (羅援) of the Academy of Military Sciences, for instance, recently threatened to use the US aircraft carrier in the exercises as a “live target.” Luo also suggested the withdrawal of US Treasury bonds to destabilize the US economy.
Washington is obviously concerned. To quote Admiral Robert Willard of the US Pacific Command: “Of particular concern is that elements of China’s military modernization appear designed to challenge our freedom of action in the region.”
Although the US is clearly reluctant, it must back-down or confront Beijing.
China appears supremely confident of reaching the top. The US, on the other hand, is keen to accommodate Beijing as a strategic partner, but is not having much success because China has its own agenda.
One doesn’t need to be a strategic genius to opine that the US-China strategic rivalry is heading toward a showdown of some sort. The scope and intensity of that will depend on a host of factors that will emerge over time.
Sushil Seth is a writer based in Australia.
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