President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) administration has taken a blatantly protectionist approach in negotiating the ECFA with China. There are several reasons for this. Many in Taiwan are anxious about where cross-strait relations are headed. Taiwan also lacks a mechanism for coordinating industrial interests and there is neither political consensus between government and opposition nor public consensus on cross-strait issues.
Under such conditions, the government is afraid of accusations that the ECFA will cause job losses, damage domestic industries or widen the gap between high and low-income groups. It will be very difficult to move away from this protectionist approach as long as these conditions persist. In other words, a comprehensive cross-strait FTA before 2012 is highly unlikely. The most that can be expected is that China will make even more economic concessions to Taiwan.
Naturally, if China continues to make such concessions, it will expect political concessions in return. A recent report published by the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics says that China’s main purpose in signing the ECFA is a political one, in that it hopes the agreement will help promote unification.
Although China can be expected to make further economic concessions to help Ma win a second term in the 2012 presidential election, it will certainly demand a political quid pro quo. That is what China means when it talks about mutual political confidence across the Taiwan Strait.
The Ma administration hopes the ECFA will open the door to Taiwan’s participation in East Asian economic integration and the signing of FTAs with its main trading partners. These ambitions will be a test of Beijing’s political flexibility and the skill of Taiwanese negotiators. The real challenge lies ahead. The ECFA will not be a free ride, and Taiwan must be prepared to face all future challenges.
Tung Chen-yuan is a professor in the Graduate Institute of Development Studies at National Chengchi University.
TRANSLATED BY JULIAN CLEGG
RSS