Beijing is prepared to operate within the multilateral framework of international institutions as long as it suits China. At the same time, it likes the operational flexibility to promote its interests as a competitive center of power.
Indeed, in recent history, no country with global aspirations has been satisfied with a role within an existing global system. Germany and Japan are examples.
As US scholar of realpolitik John Mearsheimer has written: “If China continues its impressive economic growth over the next few decades, the United States and China are likely to engage in an intense security competition with considerable potential for war.”
While China’s story of spectacular economic growth could eventually make it a center of power, there is an important caveat here that is generally ignored in this big picture: Can a one-party state of China’s size continue to maintain its monopoly of power?
There are already signs of widespread social unrest in various forms and in different places in the country, along with their suppression with brute state power.
Bao Tong (鮑彤), a famous Chinese dissident, has said: “Every four minutes there is a protest of more than 100 people.” In other words, Bao says, many “little Tiananmens” are happening everyday.
These demonstrations lack organization, however. The Chinese Communist Party’s greatest fear is that human rights activists and intellectuals might fill the organizational gap at some point when social discontent reaches a critical point, hence the systematic suppression of such elements.
The question, though, is for how long this can succeed.
There are many issues agitating the people, from corruption and nepotism to land grabs, gangsterism, particularly by local authorities, and police brutality to silence its critics.
One example is China’s World Expo showcase in Shanghai, which reportedly involved clearing 2.6km² along the Huangpu River. This meant moving 18,000 families and 270 factories, including the Jiangnan Shipyard, which employs 10,000 workers.
Only an authoritarian regime of China’s ilk can spend US$45 billion for such an event, and cause so much distress and suffering to its own people by removing them and disrupting their livelihood.
There are many Chinese examples, big and small, of such scant regard for people by a government bent on having its way.
Anyone forecasting China’s future and its international status, therefore, must take into account the fragility of the country’s internal situation.
It is a one-party state with no proper channels for people to express their frustration and anger and to seek justice. In such a situation, with anger and frustration constantly building up and with no safety valve to release people’s discontent, there is every danger of a blow-up at some point.
Sushil Seth is a writer based in Australia.
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