While it does not change the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) dominance in the legislature, Saturday’s legislative by-elections gave the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) a big boost to its morale. To quote DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), it “taught the KMT another lesson.” Now the question is whether the DPP can build on the momentum and secure more gains in the five special-municipality elections in December and presidential election in 2012.
The DPP’s election victories are significant for two reasons.
First, they suggest that Taiwan is gradually returning to a two-party state. That result is healthier not only for the two parties, but for the country as a whole. The DPP had been dogged by former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) corruption scandals since his second term. The party lost the legislative elections in January 2008 and most importantly the presidential election that March.
The DPP, however, began to make a comeback in the following elections, including the Yunlin legislative by-election last September and three legislative by-elections in January. The party also fared well in the “three-in-one” local elections last December.
Second, Saturday’s election victory further debunks the myth that the KMT has so-called “iron ticket” areas, or unbeatable strongholds. Taiwan’s political landscape has been characterized as “blue sky and green ground”, with the north supporting the KMT’s pan-blue camp, and the south friendly to the DPP’s pan-green camp. However, in last December’s county commissioner and city mayor elections, the KMT lost Yilan and Hualien counties. In January’s legislative by-elections, the DPP clinched central Taiwan and, most surprisingly, Taitung. Clearly, things have changed.
Many factors contributed to the KMT’s defeat on Saturday. President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) blamed it on split votes. But his low approval ratings and the lackluster performance of his administration are more likely reasons. Ma’s popularity has fallen faster than that of Chen in his second term.
Yet Ma insists on pursuing his agenda. His personal intervention in the four legislative constituencies proved as ineffectual as his hands-off approach in previous elections. Another problem has been that the party antagonized moderate voters with its alleged vote-buying and negative campaign tactics.
Despite the KMT’s poor showing, it is premature to predict its downfall in the year-end elections or in 2012. Voter turnout has been low in all of the recent contests — which is common for local elections — and the DPP cannot expect this in bigger or national elections. On Saturday, only 35 to 40 percent of eligible voters turned up at the poles, down from the 45 to 60 percent that voted in legislative elections in January 2008.
People also stayed home because the elections will have little impact on the legislative balance of power. After Saturday’s elections, the DPP will have 33 seats in the 113-member legislature, while the KMT continues to dominate with 75 and the Non-Partisan Solidarity Union five.
The DPP must also keep in mind that it cannot depend on the KMT’s poor performance or on hard economic times to see it through the next election. The economy is picking up and if the unemployment rate keeps improving, the KMT will take full credit.
Unless the DPP comes up with sound economic proposals and transforms itself into a party with a broad range of issues joining sovereignty on its platform, its recent successes will be short lived. Protest votes are cheap, especially when little is riding on them. When the stakes are high, as they will be in the next national election, the DPP must prove itself a responsible candidate to govern.
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