US beef imports have caused quite an outcry and the government doesn’t seem to know what to do. The problem is certain to have an impact on US relations, in which Taiwan needs all the leverage it can get.
Taiwan has imported most of its beef and offal products from New Zealand and Australia for many years, and there has been no change in the level of supply from these countries.
It seems strange that there is suddenly a big problem over the import of US beef, and in particular US offal.
There has been no sudden increase in demand from Taiwan for these products.
There doesn’t seem, then, to be any obvious reason for the sudden need to import it from the US.
It’s also not as if the US has just started producing and exporting beef and offal.
There was pressure involving importing products during the previous administration, but the government was able to resist demands for imports that it believed warranted concern.
Why is it any different now?
GREASING WHEELS
One possible interpretation is that the government is planning to use increased US beef imports to grease the wheels for a separate deal with the US, or to overcome some diplomatic impasse.
It seems, anyway, that the deal has fallen through, and so it’s understandable that Washington is unhappy with the situation.
It seems that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) thought he would be able to persuade Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislators to vote in support of US beef imports, otherwise he wouldn’t have set this as a condition for whatever gains he had in mind.
Now that things have gone wrong, Ma has to deal with the fallout both from the US and at home, where the public is questioning his authority.
He has effectively backed himself into a corner: If he tries to impose party discipline to force the KMT legislators to change their minds, he will risk a backlash from the public.
RETALIATION
On the other hand, if he allows a recent legislative resolution against US beef to stand, he will face retaliation from the US.
If US-Taiwan relations worsen, military procurement and the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) talks might be put on the back burner, with security and trade repercussions for Taiwan.
At the moment Ma is also hoping to enter negotiations with China about the economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) and a possible peace agreement.
Without the weapons sales deals and the TIFA, China will be aware that Taiwan is all the more reliant on an ECFA and a peace agreement, leaving us in an even weaker bargaining position.
REFERENDUM
As I see it, Ma’s only real way out is to hold a public referendum on the issue. If the public decides against US beef imports, no one can accuse Ma of not having authority over his own party.
And even if the US does decide to retaliate, the blame will not rest on Ma’s shoulders, because it was the public who made the decision
This may well be a way to persuade the US and avoid retaliation, and it will also mean we do not lose any bargaining chips in the coming cross-strait talks.
If the referendum fails it will also be easier for the legislature to back down more gracefully.
It’s just a matter of whether Ma has the guts to hold one.
Bill Chang is an advisory committee member at Taiwan Thinktank.
TRANSLATED BY PAUL COOPER
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