Following a spate of hate crimes against gays in Dallas and Houston in 2000, the late Molly Ivins asked the Texas Civil Liberties Union board representative from Midland if there had been any gay-bashing in her home town.
“Hell honey,” she replied. “There’s not a gay in Midland would come out of the closet for fear people would think they’re a Democrat.”
The US is so vast and diverse that extrapolating national trends from local political cultures is perilous and often futile. This was made clear again last week following the slew of local elections and referendums that took place across the country. Maine, by most measures one of the more liberal states in the union, voted against gay marriage, while in Houston in Texas, arguably one of the nation’s more conservative states, an openly lesbian candidate topped the mayoral vote in the first round. New York, one of the most Democratic cities in the country, rejected a Democrat for mayor for the fourth straight time; Atlanta, a Democratic city that has had a black mayor for the last 36 years, placed a white woman who votes in Republican primaries in the lead for mayor at the end of the first round.
There are too many local exceptions to make many rules that can stick. Nonetheless, for those who confuse anniversaries with milestones and elections with politics, last week was a big one. It is a year since US President Barack Obama was elected. And while he may not have been on any ballot this time around, for some the desire to frame the week as a referendum on his presidency was irresistible.
To some extent they were right. There were moments last week that illustrate the central challenges of his administration. The trouble is that those moments in question had nothing to do with the elections, and the results are as yet inconclusive.
At first glance, the raw electoral material last Tuesday was compelling. In gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, both states held by Democrats and taken by Obama last year, the Republicans won. Meanwhile, in a congressional byelection in upstate New York, where the Republicans have reigned in most areas for more than a century, the Democrats triumphed.
While these results are intriguing, they are not particularly indicative of anything beyond their own borders. The gubernatorial losses were certainly a blow to the Democrats. But not quite the blow the Republicans claimed they were. The elections were primarily decided by local factors (namely taxes and personalities) and swung on a low turnout — Obama got more votes by himself last year than all of the votes cast for both parties in either state last week.
Similarly, the congressional byelection certainly dealt a blow to the Republicans. But not quite the blow Democrats claimed it was. An internal battle, between social and fiscal conservatives and moderates within the Republican movement, descended into farce after Sarah Palin, radio-host Rush Limbaugh and any number of Fox News anchors waded in. The official moderate Republican candidate withdrew less than a week before polling day and endorsed the Democrat, who then faced an ultra-Conservative. Even with all of that, the Democrat only won by 4 percent.
The saga certainly highlighted the self-destructive streak among the Republicans’ hard-right base. But the slender margin of their defeat, and the peculiar circumstances in which it was inflicted, suggest that they have a far greater reach than previously imagined — and are viable even outside the south.
RSS