This may seem sensible enough. France and Britain are fellow NATO and EU members, separated from each other by only a couple dozen kilometers of sea. Establishing rotating SSBN patrols should be a straightforward affair. But the British participants voiced qualms about trusting Paris to respond to a nuclear strike on London. Even the closest of NATO allies, it seems, harbor doubts about their partners’ reliability under extreme duress.
Much as I would like to assure my Asian friends that the US will honor its commitments in Asia under all circumstances, such a promise would collide both with history and with strategic logic. US and Japanese leaders must manage their alliance relations wisely, so as to reduce the chances of a miscalculation that overstrains US extended deterrence. Let’s not put US credibility to the test.
James Holmes is an associate professor at the US Naval War College. The views expressed here are his alone.
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