In Taiwan, halving the number of seats in the legislature cost the DPP 11 seats among outlying island and Aboriginal constituencies even without an election.
When Chen Shui-bian and former DPP chairman Lin Yi-hsiung (林義雄) called for a constitutional reform to cut the number of legislators in half, DPP Legislator Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) and one or two others insisted on combining the cut with a single-member constituency system and other changes.
Under the new system, the magnifying effect that Japan saw will happen in Taiwan, too.
Unless the public’s opinion of President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) government improves over the next two years, the DPP may gain enough legislative seats in ordinary constituencies on Taiwan proper to make up for the loss of 11 seats on the islands and in Aboriginal areas.
In this scenario, the domino effect of losses for the KMT could extend beyond December’s elections for mayors, county commissioners and councilors. The party’s prospects for the presidential and legislative elections may not be good.
What does this mean for the DPP?
A party with ambitions cannot pin its hopes on the public’s dissatisfaction with rival parties. It must propose policies to win public support.
Following its victory in Yunlin, the DPP can for once breathe a sigh of relief.
The DPP’s central leadership says this turn for the better reflects good policies on the part of Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) — but some senior party members beg to differ.
These senior party members should not be so eager to criticize Tsai just as the DPP is emerging from difficulties.
Nevertheless, the policies pursued by the central leadership do leave room for discussion. The leadership says Tsai is promoting party unity. Unity is a good thing, but generally speaking, a party’s “line” comprises its strategy to win public support.
Unity within a party is important, but it is not usually presented as the party line. Sometimes a party must even sacrifice a little internal unity to win outside support.
One example of this is the British Labour Party and its “third way” centrism. Also, former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi’s LDP won the 2005 general election based on proposals such as Post Office privatization that hurt party unity.
The DPJ’s calls last year for unity among the younger generation and resistance against old bureaucratic forces were certain to spark an internal debate, just as some of US President Barack Obama’s proposals are.
It is hard to think of examples where policy positions that led to election victories did not stir up controversy within the winning parties. Ma’s opposition to isolationism and his “6-3-3” pledge (6 percent annual economic growth, annual per capita income of US$30,000 and less than 3 percent unemployment), may be the only example.
The Yunlin by-election is just the start. With the changes in the electoral system and in constituents’ voting behavior, Taiwan’s democracy has entered a new period of political transformation. But judging from the discourse on recent election results, neither the KMT nor the DPP knows how to deal with the change.
Lin Cho-shui is a former Democratic Progressive Party legislator.
TRANSLATED BY JULIAN CLEGG
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