Gordon Chang (章家敦) said in his book The Coming Collapse of China that China’s government issues false economic statistics, the nation’s banks are plagued by massive bad loans and Chinese society is unstable. He offers dire predictions for China’s future.
The situation in China is complex and it is hard to say with any certainty that it will “collapse,” but we do know that beneath the exaggerated growth figures, tensions are increasing unabated between inland and coastal areas, between urban and rural areas, between peasants, workers and the rising urban middle class and between ethnic minorities and Han Chinese.
There is also a burgeoning market for counterfeit goods, a mass of tainted products and food and pervasive official corruption.
From all this it is safe to say that China is in a lot of trouble, and that even if economic collapse can be avoided, domestic problems are bringing the country closer to the tipping point.
Faced with a China on the verge of instability, President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and his administration remain indifferent to — or are intentionally ignoring — the hard facts. They have instead adopted policies making Taiwan dependent on China.
This level of dependence will compromise Taiwanese interests if and when things start to devolve in China.
Resigning oneself to a miserable fate as the Ma administration continues its dance with the devil, however, is not an option. The real problem is what must happen next.
TRANSLATED BY DREW CAMERON
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