Pressure on the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to slow the cross-strait negotiations juggernaut had become very uncomfortable. Outflanked, disorientated and unable to convince the public that a closer economic relationship with China is cause for suspicion, the party has been given an extraordinary boost — and an opportunity — by Typhoon Morakot.
The boost comes from the administration of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) deflating trust in its capacity to govern. The government’s ongoing challenge will be to juggle the profoundly difficult task of recovery from a natural disaster and the unpredictability of cross-strait negotiations — and not let both come crashing down in flames.
The first of the two tasks is daunting enough. Before reconstruction legislation had even passed, the worst affected of those in the disaster zone indicated that they would not stand for being uprooted and replanted wherever the government sees fit — which is precisely what the law now allows for. The environmental fallout of the storm will also be apparent every time there is heavy rain or a significant earthquake in southern and central regions, and the government will be held responsible if nothing is done — or if something is done that worsens the situation.
China has likely sensed that Ma is in deep trouble and, for fear of weakening its own hand, has responded to the hastily approved visit of the Dalai Lama this weekend with relative restraint. But such restraint reflects strategy, not respect; it masks the impatience of a government that wants results in the space of months or a few years, a timeframe that pro-China elements would now be feeling all too keenly given that Ma’s leadership has been found to be deficient and demoralizing.
The DPP, meanwhile, can take comfort from the fact that it cannot be sensibly accused of exploiting suffering for political gain; at this point, simply letting the government do its thing should be message enough for the electorate.
The DPP, however, does itself no favors by peddling sophistry. In its attempt to combat an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA), the party has proposed that a referendum be held asking whether the issue should be put to a referendum.
DPP supporters should be alarmed at this stupidity; endless bickering over referendums within referendums and appeals to the Council of Grand Justices on such ephemera are precisely the kind of misbehavior that drove the public away from President Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) government and his would-be successor, Frank Hsieh (謝長廷).
But the bulk of the pressure remains on the president. Matters have been worsened by the open dissent of popular and populist KMT legislators over Ma’s performance, as well as that of Premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄), who has been rightly excoriated for his obliviousness to the magnitude of the disaster and for lack of basic leadership skills.
National Security Council Secretary-General Su Chi (蘇起), a crucial Ma ally, is also a prime target as legislators with friends in under-fire ministries strike back against what they — and almost everyone else — see as the scapegoating of minor and innocent officials.
Previous open expressions of division within the KMT to this poisonous degree preceded the formation of splinter parties that heavily wounded the party on election day. Although the prospects for an organized, well-funded rebellion against the party machine, soon to be headed by Ma, are remote, and although there is no alternative to Ma personally, it is clear that KMT legislators are nervous.
Ma has a lot of work to do, yet more and more of his colleagues seem to think that he just hasn’t got it.
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