These concerns were reflected in the fact that the Society of Combatant Clergy, a conservative body, was unable to endorse Ahmadinejad’s candidacy.
Defiance of the Supreme Leader by millions of Iranians just a day after he firmly endorsed Ahmadinejad threw the country into a political crisis. Worldwide broadcasts of the beating and killing of protesters have undermined the regime’s religious credentials.
Seeking a way out of this difficult situation, the Supreme Leader declared that the electoral disputes must be settled through legal channels, not on the street. Given his role in justifying electoral fraud, this argument seems like an effort to buy time to clear the streets of demonstrators, put opposition leaders under severe physical and psychological stress, and isolate presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, the presumed real winner of the vote.
Nonetheless, Khamenei’s invocation of the law echoes the demands of many conservative-pragmatists who lean toward Mousavi, who is not in a position to challenge Khamenei’s authority directly. Mousavi must carefully continue his legal campaign, without compromising the trust he has gained from the majority of Iranians. He must stand by his two principal demands: nullification of the election and establishment of an impartial committee to rule on the government’s violations of the electoral law.
Should Mousavi persuade Khamenei to reconsider his position, the Supreme Leader’s hold on power will be shaken. If Khamenei holds fast, Mousavi cannot gain the presidency, but he will continue to represent the hopes of the majority of Iranians who differ dramatically from their government. For now, what will happen depends on Mousavi’s perseverance.
Mansoor Moaddel is a professor of sociology at Eastern Michigan University and has conducted numerous opinion surveys in the Middle East.
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