Rather than a shift in ideology, analysts see a change in strategy in a war-battered nation where many people are fed up with the sectarian parties that have dominated since 2003.
If January’s provincial elections are any guide, politicians in Iraq may tailor their message, sincerely or not, to voters’ bread-and-butter needs — security, jobs and basic services.
Sadr may also be on his way to becoming a mujtahid, an Islamic scholar with the authority to issue religious decrees.
If he does obtain enhanced clerical credentials, he may seek to influence politics indirectly, like Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the senior Shiite cleric in Iraq, or he might take a more active role, like Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who heads the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, a major Shiite religious party.
“Our politics is religion and our religion is politics. We cannot leave politics and withdraw to mosques,” said Aqeel Abid Hussein, head of the Sadrist bloc in parliament.
The Mehdi Army, which led two revolts against US troops in 2004 but was seen as fractured from the start, was weakened when Maliki launched major US-backed crackdowns last year.
Since then, Sadr has ordered most of the militiamen to lay down their arms and embrace a cultural, civil society role.
Major-General David Perkins, the top US military spokesman in Iraq, said many Mehdi Army leaders had fled to Iran. The militia may be less active, but US officials warn of Iranian backing for die-hard elite fighters with sophisticated weapons.
“With the loss of their leadership, they are splintered. They have differing viewpoints on some of the ways ahead,” Perkins said.
Nevertheless, Salman al-Feraiji, who heads Sadr’s offices in Sadr City, vowed the fight against US troops would go on until the last US soldier had left Iraq.
“We haven’t abandoned weapons or armed struggle against the occupiers,” he said.
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