Finally and most importantly, Ma faces growing internal pressures. There are three internal constraints on the implementation of Ma’s cross-strait policy. These are KMT’s infighting, the extent to which cross-strait opening will improve Taiwan’s economy and the opposition’s checks and balance.
Ma used the KMT’s old guards to forge the first-stage of cross-strait opening but now he wants to control the party, paving the way for his re-election and his team of successors.
Nevertheless, this backfired when the media ran stories on his plan to replace SEF Chairman Chiang Pin-kung (江丙坤) with KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄). The KMT’s infighting became a stumbling block for Ma.
Furthermore, Ma has played all his economic bets on an ECFA, increasing numbers of special charter flights and Chinese tourists, which he hopes will bring direct and immediate economic gains to Taiwan.
However, whether these policies will result in a temporary economic bounce or produce a long-term boost in Taiwan’s economy remains to be seen. Ma faces severe unemployment of nearly 6 percent.
Further opening Taiwan to Chinese capital and markets may jeopardize some industrial sectors in Taiwan.
Again, Beijing controls the quantity of economic input. Even if both sides signed an ECFA, Taiwan would not be guaranteed the right to sign free trade agreements with other countries. Beijing would have the final say.
Overshadowed by the corruption scandal and lawsuits surrounding former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), as well as a potential internal split, the DPP used Sunday’s demonstration to rejuvenate party morale and rebuild a social force to oppose Ma’s policies.
This will serve as a strong balanced role to Ma’s hasty cross-strait policies.
In light of complicated and sensitive cross-strait relations, Taiwanese democracy needs a strong opposition to counteract the governing party.
There have been signs of democratic backsliding after Ma took office.
For example, police abused their power against protesters during ARATS Chairman Chen Yun-lin’s (陳雲林) visit last November. The investigation and inappropriate detention of former DPP officials, including former president Chen, is also controversial.
In the latest report from Freedom House, Taiwan dropped 11 spots in its press freedom ranking for last year.
All these facts show that hasty cross-strait rapprochement cannot be pushed forward without hurting democratic procedures, public consent and Taiwan’s sovereignty.
Liu Shih-chung is a visiting fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
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