The Ma administration has low demands — it changed its rhetoric from wanting to “discuss related regulations with ASEAN” to saying that the promotion of an ECFA could enable other countries to “be more proactive in discussing FTAs with Taiwan.”
Finally, the government is also taking a low profile in its dealings with China — it wants agreements to be based on the WTO “spirit” rather than the WTO “framework.”
Secondly, the CCP is confident that its opinions will be considered by other nations when discussing trade agreements with Taiwan and that agreement titles that China finds offensive will be avoided.
The CCP’s position on promoting a mechanism for cross-strait economic cooperation has not changed, the signing of an ECFA is only a matter of time and the only question left now is how much Taiwan will benefit from an ECFA.
On the other hand, the government places importance on public opinion and worries that signing an ECFA will give the pan-green camp ammunition in its opposition, which would not be beneficial in the year-end mayor and county commissioner elections.
The government is even more worried that the local elections will reflect a lack of confidence, or turn into a vote of no confidence. To avoid these dangers, the government has put the ECFA issue aside for the time being.
Pressure from the pan-green camp has resulted in government hesitation, but it is not enough pressure to change the direction of government policy. Now that the three links have been established with China, interdependence between Taiwan and China will increase and even if Taiwan is more reliant on China than China on Taiwan, the Ma administration remains confident that the CCP will not allow Taiwan to lose everything because this could force a declaration of independence or the creation of two Chinas.
In addition, the government also hopes to achieve progress of historic proportions by ending Taiwan’s economic marginalization.
Therefore, the ECFA has probably come to a standstill because China is playing along with the requests of the Ma administration.
Regardless of who wins in the year-end elections, everything will be rosy for the Ma government. In addition, the ECFA draft will probably also be finished by then. The most probable time for signing an ECFA will be the fifth meeting between Chiang and Chen next year.
Emerson Chang is director of the Department of International Studies at Nan Hua University.
TRANSLATED BY DREW CAMERON
RSS