In turn, Beijing might dissociate itself from the counterpiracy effort at sea, gutting Washington’s hopes for a great-power maritime partnership in the Indian Ocean.
Similarly, India might shy away from counterpiracy on land. One reason New Delhi has been edgy about closer collaboration with the US Navy is that it fears being blamed for US actions. New Delhi regards itself as a kind of steward of security and order in the Indian Ocean region. If a US campaign went poorly — or if it went well, but at high human cost — it would reinforce the fears of Indian leaders that maritime cooperation with the US is a dicey venture.
India could squander its good name — and thus its claim to regional leadership — by bandwagoning with the US, even in a worthwhile cause like quelling piracy.
Statistically speaking, the threat of piracy seems too small to justify the military and diplomatic hazards of attacking pirates in their lairs. Few ships are falling prey to brigands despite the recent spate of high-profile attacks.
Remaining on the defensive, then, looks like the prudent strategy. Navies ought to keep patrolling the waters off Somalia, while shipping firms and governments arm merchantmen transiting the area. Self-help offers the least risky antidote to maritime anarchy.
James Holmes is an associate professor of strategy at the US Naval War College. The views expressed here are his own.
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