Nor was North Korea impressed by Obama’s warnings that the US might shoot down its rocket if they went ahead with their launch in defiance of the UN. Shielded behind a protective China, leader Kim Jong-il launched his rocket anyway, and the US refrained from action.
Iran is another front where Obama might be forced to recognize the limits of his conciliatory approach. He has waived Washington’s long-standing demand that Iran stop uranium enrichment as a precondition for negotiations, and he has sworn off any idea of regime change. But the Iranians are the subtlest negotiators, and will make certain that their nuclear program outpaces the negotiations. If that happens, then what?
Nor is it clear what Obama really means by saying that he recognizes Iran’s “rightful place in the community of nations.” If this means a special status at the expense of other Middle East powers such as Egypt or the Gulf states, Obama might run into strong opposition from traditional US allies in the region.
It is right and refreshing that Obama has made clear that the US’ aspiration is to lead, not dominate. But even an exercise in modesty and realism requires strong alliances, with partners ready for sacrifices. Nor would old enemies and competitors like Russia and China readily abandon the benefits of spoiling the US’ plans. It is when this becomes crystal clear, and also when some worn-out foreign-policy paradigms such as the fetish of a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict fail once again, that real choices will have to be made.
Shlomo Ben Ami is a former Israeli foreign minister who now serves as the vice president of the Toledo International Center for Peace.
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