While the whole world is being hit by a tremendous financial crisis, Russia is facing a perfect storm. The Russian stock market is in free fall, plummeting by 60 percent since May 19, a loss of US$900 billion. And the plunge is accelerating. As a result, Russia’s economic growth is likely to fall sharply and suddenly.
One problem is that, after a long period of fiscal prudence, Russia’s government has shown extraordinary ineptitude. Russia has enjoyed average annual economic growth of 7 percent since 1999. With huge current account and budget surpluses, it had accumulated international reserves of US$600 billion by July. Its public debt was almost eliminated. But the open economy that has bred Russia’s economic success requires the maintenance of sensible policies to succeed.
The initial US financial crisis barely touched Russia, but the global economic slowdown brought about a decline in oil and other commodity prices by more than one-third since July, which was a big blow. All the other hits, however, have been self-inflicted. The Russian financial crisis is high drama, best described as a tragedy in five acts.
On July 24, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin initiated the first act by fiercely attacking, without evidence, the timid owner of the giant coal and steel company Mechel for price-gouging and tax evasion. In three days, Mechel’s shares lost half their value, triggering the Russian stock market’s decline.
Then, on Aug. 8, Putin launched the second act of this Russian tragedy, his long-planned attack on Georgia. Shockingly, Russia argued that it had the right to attack a country that harbored people to whom it had just issued passports, scaring all countries with Russian minorities. By recognizing the “independence” of the two occupied territories, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia turned the whole world against it.
Russia’s leaders have earned a reputation for being unreliable, quixotic and unpredictable, but markets like trustworthiness, stability and predictability. Not surprisingly, foreign investors no longer favor Putin’s Russia.
Within a week of its attack on Georgia, Russia recorded a capital outflow of US$16 billion, which has since increased to US$30 billion. This is a small sum relative to Russia’s currency reserves, but plenty for the underdeveloped banking system, which experienced a severe credit squeeze.
Putin continues to deny that Russia’s financial problems were caused by his war in Georgia, and it took Russia’s central bank more than a month to provide substantial liquidity injections. But it was already too late, as the liquidity problem had become a matter of solidity.
Overtly, Russian stock valuations look attractive, but by heaping abuse on foreigners, Putin has scared them away, while Russian investors have no money at hand. With every statement, Putin erodes Russia’s political risk profile.
As is customary, many Russian businessmen pledged shares to borrow money for stock purchases. As the stock market dives, they receive margin calls and are forced to sell their shares at ever-lower prices, causing the stock market’s downward spiral to accelerate. In Soviet fashion, the Moscow stock exchanges closed for four days in a row last week because stocks plunged too fast. By denying the problem, the authorities have aggravated the lack of confidence.
On international financial markets, the war in Georgia has rendered Russian debt and bonds toxic. Interest rates on Russia’s bonds have risen by 2 percentage points to 3 percentage points, and many Russian creditors no longer have access to international capital markets.
Russia is just about to enter the third act of this tragedy, a banking crisis. Numerous medium-sized banks, and some large ones, are set to go under in the stock-market turmoil. Too many big investors can no longer meet their margin calls, while borrowing costs have risen sharply. The recent appreciation of the US dollar adds to their hardship.
In the fourth act, the real estate bubble will burst. A reasonable guess would be that Moscow’s astronomic real-estate prices will fall by at least two-thirds. That will exacerbate the banking crisis.
In the fifth act, investment will seize up. Why continue building when you can neither finance your investment nor sell real estate? Consumers are already scared and will cut their consumption, causing aggregate demand to contract.
In the end, real economic growth will come to a screeching halt, perhaps as early as next year. Other factors are likely to aggravate the situation. High-level corruption is so rampant that Russia appears unable to build major public infrastructure projects. Oil and other commodity prices are likely to fall further, and oil and gas production have already stagnated. Putin has turned his back on the WTO and is promoting protectionism, which will also harm growth. Strangely, the most solid parts of the Russian financial system are the state budget and the currency reserves, but it is too late for them to prevent this tragedy. Neither arbitrary state intervention nor brutality will restore investor confidence.
The villain in this drama is Putin, who has thrived on eight years of rapid growth generated by the market reforms of his predecessor, former president Boris Yeltsin. Russia had a good chance to escape this international financial crisis, but, through his ruthlessness and ineptitude, Putin has rendered his poor country a prime victim. How long can Russia afford such an expensive prime minister?
Anders Aslund is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
COPYRIGHT: PROJECT SYNDICATE
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
The past few months have seen tremendous strides in India’s journey to develop a vibrant semiconductor and electronics ecosystem. The nation’s established prowess in information technology (IT) has earned it much-needed revenue and prestige across the globe. Now, through the convergence of engineering talent, supportive government policies, an expanding market and technologically adaptive entrepreneurship, India is striving to become part of global electronics and semiconductor supply chains. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vision of “Make in India” and “Design in India” has been the guiding force behind the government’s incentive schemes that span skilling, design, fabrication, assembly, testing and packaging, and