The three countries in the Taiwan Strait issue — Taiwan, China and the US — always seem to be changing more than others. China has problems with a devastating earthquake, Tibet and the Olympic Games. The US has severe domestic economic problems, problems with other countries, especially in the Middle East, and its forthcoming elections. And Taiwan’s two main political parties are rearranging their politics, but in different directions.
China’s first two problems are not a political problem for Taiwan, but the third could be — depending on Beijing’s behavior in August. Taiwan may be concerned that its Olympics participation might cause political problems. Beijing, however, may be more concerned by outside visitors or athletes that might speak openly back home of China’s activities.
From now until the Games are over, however, much can be accomplished between Taiwan and China. Already the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) have agreed to discuss weekend cross-strait charter flights and allow more Chinese tourists to Taiwan.
More important, ARATS has agreed that meetings will be based on the so-called “1992 consensus.” China has not openly modified the title, leaving unclear if more has been discussed with either the SEF or the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
Many in Taiwan and the US are pleased that Taipei and Beijing are beginning to talk with each other, but many also watch with great interest what is being said, and to what extent it is not open to the public.
Even public statements over the years have been based on the use of ambiguity in agreements by all three sides. Given the many differences between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and especially the differences within democratic Taiwan, however, the public will follow new agreements with China and what they mean with greater interest than usual.
Another interest is the way Taiwan’s new relationship with China seems to be developing. Taiwan’s new government seems to be using two organizations to manage its relationship with China.
The highest level at this time seems to be the KMT leadership, with the SEF carrying out whatever is decided. This may be a result of previous meetings between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
The CCP has filled the national leadership since its beginning, like the KMT until Taiwan’s democratization. Thereafter, the KMT met with the CCP while the former was in opposition. Party information is not required to be given to government organizations.
Some in the media seem to suggest that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will become very close — some may even think Taiwan could become something like Hong Kong, or maybe even Singapore.
But China has many problems domestically and internationally. It is not likely to agree to any requests of importance.
It is far more likely that economic matters may be of interest, while matters such as international space for Taiwan will not.
Talks between the two sides have been reopened. The initial issues — cross-strait charter flights and admitting more Chinese tourists to Taiwan — will likely be accepted by both sides and begin next month as stated by President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).
Many, especially in Taiwan, see these moves as leading to a better life. Just as many seem less sure but will wait and watch what will follow and at what cost. And quite a few others believe the changes being made are disastrous.
It will likely continue this way for some time.
However, as long as Taiwan can maintain itself as a democracy, its people hopefully will be able to follow the changes and express their rights when needed.
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and is now a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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