Nor has its political evolution matched its economic progress. While more Chinese are free today than ever before in Chinese history, China is far from free. The danger is that Chinese Communist Party leaders, trying to counter the erosion of communism, will turn to nationalism to provide ideological glue, which could lead to an unstable foreign policy — including, for example, conflict over Taiwan.
Faced with such uncertainty, a wise policy combines realism with liberalism. By reinforcing their alliance, the US and Japan can hedge against uncertainty while at the same time offering China integration into global institutions as a “responsible stakeholder.” The greatest danger is that an escalating fear of enmity in the three countries becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. In that sense, the US-Japan alliance rests on deeply rooted joint interests.
There is a new dimension to the alliance and to the relationship with China. This year, China surpassed the US as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. China argues that it is still behind the US and Japan in per capita emissions but this does not reduce the costs imposed on the world.
A cooperative program that helps China to burn its coal more cleanly is in the interests of all three countries.
In general, transnational threats such as climate change or pandemics can cause damage on a scale equivalent to military conflict. (In 1918, avian flu killed more people than died in World War I). Responding to such threats requires cooperation, soft power, and non-military instruments, and this is an area in which Japan is a much more equal and important ally.
If anything, the new and growing dimension of transnational threats, when added to traditional security concerns, makes the future of the Japan-US alliance look more promising than ever.
Joseph Nye, a former US assistant secretary of defense, is a Distinguished Service Professor at Harvard University.
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