Experts predict a future with more home-working

By John Carvel
THE GUARDIAN, LONDON
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2008, Page 9

Within a decade millions of workers will be at home juggling their careers with caring for children and older relatives, Britain's leading management institute forecast on Thursday.

Dreams of a future when technological advances would liberate us from the daily drudge and allow more time for leisure appear to be fading, with futurologists predicting less talk about "work-life balance" and more about "work-life integration."

A report on the nature of employment in 2018 predicts an exodus from the traditional workplace caused partly by environmental pressure to reduce the carbon footprint of commuting and partly by the demographic pressure of an aging population, with fewer employees able to avoid looking after older relatives, leading to a blurring of boundaries between family and career.

In a list of scenarios drawn up by the UK Chartered Management Institute and launched at a seminar in London on Thursday by Sir John Sunderland, chairman of Cadbury Schweppes, companies were warned to prepare for a range of more remote possibilities, including a world under cyber attack, the use of holograms for communication between staff and controlling employee behavior by implanting microchips in their brains. More probable scenarios included a polarization of businesses, with large corporations consolidating global control and becoming more powerful than the governments of some big countries.

But there would also be a proliferation of "virtual" companies, often small community-based enterprises without conventional business premises.

These enterprises would have to compete for employees, who will become more footloose and less inclined to work for an organization that does not allow individuals to tailor the working day to meet their personal requirements.

"Organizations will have to address the growing power of the employee," the report said.

Whether or not workers enjoy this extra flexibility, they will not be allowed to cling to traditional patterns of employment.

"On all levels there will be a move towards upskilling and multi-skilling -- employees will be required to be more flexible with regard to organizational needs," the report said.

This may mean workers abandoning traditional shifts. People may work from home on assignments during specific time slots, or be available on call when work needs to be done.

They will communicate by high-speed broadband, perhaps supplemented by hologram technology permitting virtual presence at meetings.

Many talented people would become "multi-employed," some working for a day or two a week in "third place locations" outside their organizations or home office.

As work becomes more project-based, people will need to use specialized services to market themselves for individual ad hoc projects.

Managers will have to create multicultural work teams, operating remotely, combining the skills of older and younger workers. As social changes from the past 30 years take root, women will move into higher management positions. Emotional intelligence and the ability to appreciate people's values as much as their technical competencies will be seen by recruiters as increasingly important.

Futurologists may have predicted some of these changes, but the institute said its report was the first attempt by captains of industry and commerce to predict how their organizations may look 10 years in the future.

It said collaborative working would become so important that companies should consider abolishing positions and job titles.

"Instead each employee should be seen as a valuable resource, to be employed according to specific organizational need," it said.

Companies would come to regard wisdom as a valuable resource. Some would try to nurture an organizational memory by arranging rituals and storytelling, and listening to the accounts of long-term employees.

The institute put findings from the report to more than 1,000 senior executives. It found 74 percent expected "virtual teams of employees," working at a distance from each other, to become the norm by 2018.

About 64 percent thought talented people would become "multi-employed," 59 percent said job hopping would be commonplace and 56 percent said most routine tasks would be automated.

Two-thirds of the executives expected global corporations to exert more influence than governments. Almost as many forecast an increase in customer participation in business decisions and the creation of products with longer life cycles to meet environmental concerns. There was less support for the futurologists' technological projections. Only 31 percent expected to communicate with staff by hologram and 12 percent thought companies would enhance the capabilities of staff by implanting microchips in their brains.

"Looking ahead 10 years, it is clear that the successful organizations will be those who can do more than embrace change -- they will anticipate, identify and drive it," said Mary Chapman, the institute's chief executive.

"A greater degree of emotional intelligence will be required by managers and leaders so they can understand how people work and their likely reaction to change. They will also need to shift from today's input-driven approach to a focus on output, achievement and a better integration between work and personal lives," she said.

John Carvel is social affairs editor at the Guardian.