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Figures for Chinese tourists do not add up

Chinese Nationalist Party presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) announced that he wants a million Chinese tourists a year to visit Taiwan, a figure which he wants to eventually see swell to 3 million. This prompted me to do some research into these figures.

According to Singapore's tourism bureau, 1.1 million Chinese tourists visited Singapore last year, which seems like quite a coincidence. On average, Singapore receives 3,000 tourists a day. However, Singapore's tourism bureau does not provide figures for the average amount spent per Chinese tourist.

According to information released last year by the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), 31 million tourists departed from China in 2005, a 10 percent increase from 2004.

These individuals spent a total of US$21.7 million, or an average of US$700 each. As there is no data concerning the duration of their travels, we do not know whether they spent US$700 in three days or in seven. Also, we do not know how much of this sum is airfares, hotel fees or other costs.

During the same period, the average spend of Taiwanese tourists abroad was US$1,058, while tourists visiting Taiwan spent an average of US$1,400. Comparatively, the spending power of Chinese tourists is not particularly high.

Data from the Travel Industry Association of America indicated that 320,000 Chinese tourists traveled to the US in 2006. On average, their stay lasted 24 days, their airfares cost US$1,347 and their other expenditures reached US$5,131, making a total of US$6,478.

Deducting the cost of the airfare and dividing the remainder of their spending over a 24 day stay, their average daily spending was US$213. According to the US Department of Commerce, there will be an estimated 580,000 Chinese tourists in the US in 2011.

If Taiwan is opened up to Chinese tourists, would their average spending be nearer US$700 or US$6,000? Data from the Thai tourism bureau is worth considering.

In 2006, Chinese tourists stayed in Thailand for an average of 5.75 days, spending an average of US$146 per day. Even if we optimistically assume that this sum does not include airfares, their total spending would be US$840. If one budgeted for three meals a day, accommodation, entrance fees and transportation in Taiwan for US$146 a day, I wonder how much profit businesses would be able to generate?

According to information released by UNWTO last month, Macau received nearly 13 million tourists last year. According to Macanese academics, 90 percent of Macau's gamblers are Chinese. Yet, these same academics are not so keen to mention casinos as much as they are interested in promoting their cultural tourism industry.

Isn't it good to have so many Chinese gamblers? Not really. Academics worry that if Macau becomes equated too heavily with gambling, and Chinese policy were to change, then these tourists would disappear overnight. This is a considerable risk for Macau's tourism industry.

In addition, of the 26,000 jobs at six new casinos, local Macanese hold only 8,000. Macanese do not necessarily benefit from casinos, but must face the soaring prices brought by economic growth.

I support developing tourism and welcome Chinese tourists to Taiwan in the same way I welcome other tourists. However, I believe that overly high expectations are not helpful.

Chen Meng-mei is a professor at Ecole Hoteliere de Lausanne in Switzerland.

Translated by Angela Hong
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