US President George W. Bush rightly called Pakistan's recent national and provincial elections "a victory for [its] people."
But even as he uttered those words, his administration was working behind the scenes to subvert the will of the Pakistani people by trying to dictate the composition of their next coalition government and prop up the election's biggest loser, President Pervez Musharraf.
Bush is playing a dangerous game, risking the collapse of Pakistan's political process for the sake of his own legacy.
Millions of Pakistanis delivered a clear message at the polls. Collectively, they voted against Musharraf and religious extremists and in favor of democracy, the rule of law and good governance.
Nationally, no single party received a majority, but the centrist, democratic opposition won more than 70 percent of the National Assembly seats. The Musharraf-allied faction of the Muslim League party (PML-Q) came in third, polling only 15 percent, despite the assistance of surgical vote-rigging. Most of its senior leaders were defeated in their constituencies -- including one who hadn't lost an election in 26 years. The PML-Q, created in 1999 by Pakistan's intelligence agencies, is now political dead wood.
ALLIANCE
An alliance between the two largest parties, the late Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League faction (PML-N) is what the country needs and what most Pakistanis want. The PPP and PML-N have the numbers to form a unity government. They also realize that this is perhaps their last chance to "save" Pakistan.
Together with the pro-democracy army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, this coalition can address Pakistan's most pressing challenges, including terrorism. With the addition of smaller parties and independents to the coalition, they can also impeach Musharraf and restore the judiciary, which he had deposed.
This is unpalatable to the Bush administration, which has helped keep Musharraf in power, despite the fact that 75 percent of Pakistanis want him to resign.
The Bush administration considers the PML-N's nationalism and antagonism to Musharraf particularly troublesome. Sharif has called for Pakistan's foreign policy to be debated in parliament, but supports continued cooperation with the US. His party also wants the sacked Supreme Court justices to be restored.
The US government, however, endorsed the justice's illegal removal, seeing the court's insistence on constitutional accountability for Musharraf as complicating its regional objectives. The court, for example, required Musharraf to present alleged terror suspects -- some of whom were likely "rendered" to Pakistan by the CIA -- detained for years without government acknowledgment.
Of course, a popular, democratically elected government and an independent judiciary in Islamabad complicate relations with the US. Democracy is intrinsically messy, but it won't jeopardize Pakistan's partnership in the war on terror.
IMPATIENT
The Bush administration, however, has become used to dealing with one man and is increasingly impatient. In its final year, it would like to increase the odds of a Republican victory in November's US presidential election. Toward this end, progress in Pakistan and Afghanistan would be highly valuable.
As a result, the Bush administration is aggressively interfering in coalition talks between Pakistan's political parties. It wants to pair the PPP with the discredited PML-Q and isolate the PML-N. US Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson, for example, has held a joint meeting with senior Musharraf adviser Tariq Aziz and PPP Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari, Bhutto's widower.
US Vice President Dick Cheney's office is also reportedly playing an active role. Zardari, in a joint press conference with Sharif, refused to answer a question about whether there is pressure from the US to ally with Musharraf. But he and Sharif did agree "in principle" to form a government.
The Bush administration's forceful manipulation of Pakistan's political leadership is dangerous for both Pakistan and the US. Its favored arrangement could divide the opposition, keep Musharraf ascendant and provide continuity in the Pakistani army's campaign against militants.
But it would also likely delegitimize the next government before it comes into power, rupture Pakistan's largest political party and create a nationalist backlash against the US.
The US needs to take a step back and let Pakistan's political process proceed naturally. The end result might not be optimal, but if the Bush administration overplays its hand, it could find itself partnerless in Pakistan.
Arif Rafiq is the editor of the Pakistan Policy Blog.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
The past few months have seen tremendous strides in India’s journey to develop a vibrant semiconductor and electronics ecosystem. The nation’s established prowess in information technology (IT) has earned it much-needed revenue and prestige across the globe. Now, through the convergence of engineering talent, supportive government policies, an expanding market and technologically adaptive entrepreneurship, India is striving to become part of global electronics and semiconductor supply chains. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Vision of “Make in India” and “Design in India” has been the guiding force behind the government’s incentive schemes that span skilling, design, fabrication, assembly, testing and packaging, and
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.