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Looking ahead to 'Super Tuesday'

The US now has two frontrunners going into Super Tuesday next week, the day 23 states hold primaries and caucuses: Senator Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Senator John McCain for the Republicans.

But their standing is far from secure. The race between Clinton and Senator Barack Obama is exposing some serious divisions in the Democratic Party. On the Republican side, McCain has not quite sold himself to the party base.

The racial division is especially dangerous for Democrats. White Democrats favor Clinton. African-American Democrats favor Obama by nearly two to one. In October, blacks supported Clinton over Obama by 24 points.

What happened?

African-American Democrats used to be reluctant to support Obama because they didn't think a black man could be elected president. Then Obama won Iowa and nearly won New Hampshire -- two overwhelmingly white states.

Now they believe.

"I am convinced we will not just win this primary and not just win the nomination and the general election, but together, you and I can transform this country -- and transform the world," Obama told his supporters.

RACE AND GENERATION

Hispanic voters had a voice in the Jan. 19 Nevada caucuses. They voted nearly three to one for Clinton. That pits Hispanics against blacks, who voted five to one for Obama. The division between blacks and Hispanics could generate ethnic and racial tension the Democrats don't need.

Clinton won the New Hampshire primary by widening the gender gap among Democrats. Women gave Clinton her first big victory, while male voters showed less enthusiasm for a female candidate.

There is also a growing generation gap between Clinton and Obama: Young voters favor Obama, older voters support Clinton. If Obama fails to get on the Democratic ticket, the party may face a generation of disillusioned voters.

What's the division between Clinton and Obama all about? Not ideology. You don't see any division between liberal and moderate Democrats. It's not about issues either. Democrats fought long ago over war and civil rights. Clinton and Obama are not very far apart on the issues, and neither are their supporters.

ECONOMIC IMPERATIVE

In primary after primary, Clinton voters cite the economy as their top issue. They also cite "experience" as the quality that attracts them to Clinton.

Back in 1984, the insider favorite for the Democratic nomination, former vice president Walter Mondale, devastated his outsider opponent, Gary Hart, with a single question borrowed from a hamburger commercial: "Where's the beef?"

Clinton is the "Where's the beef?" Democrat in this race: She promises to deliver the goods. Obama attracts supporters with his inspirational message of hope and good feeling. Voters say the quality that attracts them to Obama is his promise of change. Obama is the "new menu" Democrat. What Democrats are seeing is a clash of political styles, not political principles.

REPUBLICAN RACE

In the Republican race going into Super Tuesday, no candidate has caught fire with conservatives, who are the base of the Republican Party. The amazing thing about McCain's narrow victory in South Carolina is that he won without sweeping the conservative vote in a state where Republicans are overwhelmingly conservative. McCain carried only a quarter of the conservative vote. Mike Huckabee got a third.

McCain did not win South Carolina on ideology. And he didn't win on issues. Even though he is a strong supporter of US President George W. Bush's surge policy in Iraq, McCain does better among Republicans who are antiwar and critical of the Bush administration. South Carolina Republicans who said their vote was driven by the issues went for Huckabee. Those who cited personal qualities and leadership voted for McCain.

MAKING IT PERSONAL

McCain's vote was a highly personal vote. It was a vote for him -- his heroic life story, his straight talk -- rather than for his issue positions.

The conservative vote in South Carolina was split. National security conservatives went for McCain, a former war hero and military expert. Social conservatives supported Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher. Economic conservatives favored Mitt Romney, a former business executive. There was no Ronald Reagan to pull them all together.

McCain has taken heretical positions on many conservative issues like tax cuts and immigration reform and campaign finance reform. He now has to sell himself to conservatives as Reagan's legitimate heir.

Democrats have a slightly different problem. Clinton and Obama have caught fire, and the confrontation has created drama and excitement in the Democratic race.

Among Republicans, however, the dominant response to the campaign has been frustration. Turnout in Democratic primaries has been surging, while turnout in Republican primaries has been declining compared with previous years.

Democratic and Republican strategists were planning for the 2008 campaign the same way generals do by preparing to fight the last war. Republicans wanted this year to be a repeat of 2004, when Bush was re-elected: a referendum on terrorism. Democrats wanted 2008 to be a repeat of their most recent triumph, the 2006 midterm, which was a referendum on the war in Iraq.

But this year is looking more and more like 1992, when former president Bill Clinton won the election because of "the economy, stupid." In fact, Hillary Clinton has adopted the parallel with 1992 as a campaign theme.

"There seems to be a pattern here," she said. "It takes a Clinton to clean up after a Bush."

Bill Schneider is a senior political analyst for CNN and a key part of the politics team bringing international perspectives on the US election. For more information visit www.cnn.com/americavotes.
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