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There's no such thing as a coattail in our polls

THE CHINESE NATIONALIST Party's (KMT) victory in the legislative elections was more resounding than expected. Does this mean that the party will also sweep the presidential election in March on the coattails of the legislative landslide? Past experience shows there is not a firm correlation between the two.

In the legislative elections in 1995, the KMT only obtained 85 seats -- or three seats more than half the total seats -- down from 103. After the elections, New Party legislators Chou Chuan (周荃), Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康) and Chen Kwei-miew (陳癸淼) invited Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators Shih Ming-teh (施明德), David Chou (周伯倫) and Lin Cho-shui (林濁水) to form a "grand coalition" government.

Shih's plan was to defeat the KMT nominee for legislative speaker, and by way of controlling legislative approval, also force a concession from the KMT on the nomination of a candidate for premier. Ideally, this scheme was expected to cause a domino effect in the ensuing presidential election in March and lead to the defeat of Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) and his running mate, Lien Chan (連戰) -- and bring an end to KMT rule.

But the KMT's fragile legislative majority did not affect the subsequent presidential election and the KMT won with a 54 percent majority.

During the 1998 legislative elections, which were combined with the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections, the KMT obtained 123 of the 225 seats, securing a stable majority. Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) defeated Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), who was seeking re-election as mayor of Taipei City.

The popular view was that this loss would be a major setback for Chen Shui-bian in his presidential bid.

Chen, however, became president in 2000, while the KMT candidate came in third. The KMT's previous legislative victories, therefore, did not help it win the presidential election.

Conversely, parties who succeed in presidential elections are not guaranteed success in subsequent legislative elections. In the legislative elections in 2001, the DPP sought to break out of being a minority government. After fierce campaigning and TV ads accusing the opposition of paralyzing debate on national issues and unreasonably boycotting budgets and operations, the DPP won 87 seats, thus becoming the largest party in the legislature.

However, an alliance between the KMT, the People First Party (PFP) and the New Party gave the pan-blue camp a legislative majority and the DPP remained in an awkward position.

Chen Shui-bian was re-elected president in 2004, yet the legislative elections later that year saw yet another majority coalition between the KMT, the PFP and the New Party, while the DPP failed to gain allies of its own.

Doing poorly in legislative elections thus does not entail failure in a presidential election -- nor does it promise success.

What really matters are the format of the elections, the size of electoral districts, the qualifications of the candidates and the political environment, as well as unforeseen developments, which can sway results either way.

For instance, military threats by Beijing in 1996 and and an attempt on Chen Shui-bian's life in the 2004 presidential election were both developments that could not have been predicted and both had an impact on the outcome of the elections.

As for the upcoming presidential election, Chen Shui-bian is quite right in saying that the DPP must not give up hope, while Ma is likewise correct in advising the KMT to remain humble.

After all, the next round is just beginning and the results are impossible to foretell.

Liu Hua-tsung is adjunct assistant professor at the Institute of Public Administration and Policy at Nan Hua University.

TRANSLATED BY TED YANG AND ANGELA HONG
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