Could Obama defeat the Republican candidate? Head-to-head comparisons in December between Democratic and Republican presidential competitors by an assemblage of polling services (Rasmussen, NBC/Wall Street Journal, USA Today/Gallup, Zogby, Battleground, CNN and Fox News) indicated the following: Clinton beat all the Republicans except John McCain, who clobbered her. Obama, however, won convincingly in the former comparisons and tied with McCain. Besides confirming that Obama is more electable nationally than Clinton, the exercise suggested that Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency.
Last April, a retired official (and a Republican) in the current Bush administration told me that he had met Obama privately and found no fault with him despite having a natural inclination to find fault with Democrats.
Within a week, a Princeton University professor (probably a Democrat), an expert on health insurance policy, told me her impressions of a meeting with Obama. She marveled at his magnetic personality and his vision as a potential statesman. She was so impressed with Obama that she gave me his bestselling publication, The Audacity of Hope.
Obama's record on opposing the Iraq War has perhaps become his greatest campaign asset in contrast to not only Hillary Clinton, who voted for the war, but also most Republican hopefuls who have supported the war at some stage. In November, Bill Clinton's remark on TV that he opposed the Iraq War "from the beginning" brought endless headaches to Hillary's team.
The war is costing some US$300 million per day for US taxpayers, many of whom are feeling the pinch of a weakening economy. Although by some measures the situation in Iraq has improved as the Iraqi people turn against terrorists, the condition remains untenable. The war, already the top issue in the presidential campaign, will loom even larger in November. It will be heavy baggage for any candidate, Republican or Democrat, who has not consistently opposed it.
That would provide an unmatched advantage for Obama if he secures the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.
What would an Obama presidency augur?
First, US withdrawal from Iraq. That will start a noticeable, though gradual, decline of US influence first in the Middle East, and then in the rest of the world. China, still far behind the US in economic and military terms, will become more formidable in the eyes of other countries.
Second, the US will turn inward. Washington will place domestic economics and social agendas before military expansion and intervention abroad.
Third, there will be an end to unilateralism. Washington will consult more with other powers and converse with even the "rogue states." Relations with the Muslim world will improve.
Fourth, environmental concerns will be taken more seriously. Washington will no longer boycott international efforts to face global warming.
Fifth, there will be a renaissance of spiritualism and humanism. The US under Obama may become a world leader in the promotion of spiritual and humanistic values.
Chong-Pin Lin is a former deputy defense minister and president of the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies in Taipei.
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