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Port dispute shows PLA in disarray

The dispute between the US and China over calls by US warships at Chinese ports illuminates several troubling aspects of military relations between the Pacific powers.

The first is the fragility of the relations. Military exchanges between the US and China are easily disrupted because each sees them differently.

For US officers, they are an attempt to preclude miscalculation leading to war. For Chinese officers, they are power tools for manipulating the US.

Ignorance also plays a large part. The Chinese, partly isolated by Western and Japanese powers for a century, have little understanding of the world outside of China. In one case, they ignored a long-standing tradition of the sea and in another needlessly deprived 300 US sailors of family reunions.

Another key factor in relations is disarray. Mixed signals from China suggest a lack of communication between the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which includes all of China's armed forces, and the Foreign Ministry. After the PLA turned the US ships away, the diplomats tried unsuccessfully to patch things up.

China's civilian leaders, beginning with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), are believed to want stable military relations with the US so they can attend to pressing political and economic problems, such as unemployment.

But the PLA sees US forces as the enemy and has little incentive to strive for good relations.

A grudging balance appears to have been struck. The PLA reluctantly deals with the US and slows the pace whenever it can.

The civilian leaders, in turn, need the support of the PLA to stay in power and thus are reluctant to oppose the military leaders.

The current wrangle started just before Thanksgiving when the PLA abruptly said the 74,000 tonne aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk and accompanying vessels would not be permitted to sail into Hong Kong on a long planned visit.

About 300 members of families of the crews had flown at their own expense from Japan, where the ships are based and crew families live, to Hong Kong to celebrate Thanksgiving.

That distance is about the same as between New York and San Francisco and airfare alone cost about US$500 a person.

Later, it turned out that the Chinese had also refused entry to two smaller ships, the 1,130 tonne, wooden hulled minesweepers Patriot and Guardian, when they sought to escape a storm. Maritime tradition holds that politics are set aside and help given when a ship is in trouble at sea.

Three US admirals, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Mike Mullen, chief of naval operations Gary Roughead and Pacific commander Timothy Keating, all expressed public dismay at the Chinese actions.

A Chinese official at first said the refusal to allow Kitty Hawk to enter Hong Kong's harbor was due to a "misunderstanding." Another official, however, soon denied that, but no explanation has been forthcoming. Another US ship, the destroyer Reuben James, has been denied a New Year's Day visit.

Hints from Beijing and speculation in the US said the Chinese were angry over the recent visit to Washington by the Dalai Lama and over arms sales to Taiwan. Some observers brushed those off as "not new." One suggested the explanation might be "simple bloodymindedness."

Experienced US "China hands" said the lack of coordination was perhaps the most troubling aspect of the issue.

"There doesn't seem to be a central functioning channel, such as a national security council, for these issues," one observer said.

Another said: "I see little evidence that the Chinese have successfully created or empowered any kind of structure to effect the necessary internal communication."

In Washington last week, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Eric Edelman met PLA deputy chief of staff Lieutenant General Ma Xiaotian (馬曉天) to start a dialogue on nuclear strategy.

A Pentagon spokesman, Bryan Whitman, said US officials expressed "disappointment" over the port issue and said "we have moved beyond it."

Besides the current issue, administration officials of US President George W. Bush have questioned the purpose of China's expanding military budget. They have pointed to China's investment in naval and air forces that seem to be intended to deny US forces access to the area around Taiwan.

China has repeatedly said it would use military force to prevent Taiwan from acquiring formal independence. US law and credibility make it most likely that the US would be required to respond with military force to any military action by China.

Richard Halloran is a writer based in Hawaii.
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