The critical hurdle in reaching peace will not be negotiations, but rather implementing whatever agreement is inked -- and its political cost will be very high.
The Palestinians are already in the midst of a civil war. The compromises necessary for peace are likely to lead to a stark political confrontation in Israel as well. Obviously, Olmert is thinking of reaching an agreement on borders using the Road Map mechanism. Such an agreement should be implemented gradually and its progress should depend on the parties' fulfillment of their obligations each step of the way.
Yet a mechanism of this kind can only work if a third party (such as the US or the Middle East Quartet) monitors its implementation. Otherwise, disputes about the fulfillment of this or that provision will lead the entire process back into the familiar quicksand of Middle East futility.
So, from a realistic point of view, a positive outcome for the Annapolis talks seems almost impossible. Why should this conflict, which has proven unsolvable in the past, suddenly end, or come closer to a solution. How is this possible with Bush, Olmert and Abbas, all of whom are weak in their domestic political scenes?
Karl Marx wrote that history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce. One might fear that Camp David proves to be the tragedy and Annapolis the farce. But, then, this is the Middle East, where earlier breakthroughs grew out of defeat, not victory. So one should never give up hope, even when progress seems impossible.
Joschka Fischer, German foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 to 2005, led Germany's Green Party for nearly 20 years.
Copyright: Project Syndicate/Institute
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