Tue, Sep 18, 2007 - Page 9 News List

US mortgage crisis could generate both misery and opportunity

By Patrick Collinson  /  THE GUARDIAN , LONDON

Babb's other recommendation is to seek out distressed home owners before foreclosure.

"If the buyer contacts the home owner directly, they can often work out a bargain deal and then jointly take that deal to the bank -- the bank, not wanting to pay a 6 percent broker fee plus go through the hassles of foreclosure, will often accept the offer if it's reasonable [approximately 20 percent to 40 percent below appraised value]."

A large number of Web sites have sprung up offering to find foreclosures across the US, although as most charge for access and are keen to find users, some of the claims they make can be far-fetched. The US Mortgage News Daily says recent shocking Realtytrac foreclosure figures, reported across all the major news networks in the US, paint a misleading picture of the "crisis."

A different reading of the figures suggest arrears and repossession figures are stable in most areas and would have fallen were it not for sharp rises in just four states. But it acknowledges that one of the states with soaring foreclosures is Florida; the others are Arizona, Nevada and California.

In an odd way, the real estate agents are happy that at least the foreclosures are prompting activity after two years in which sales came to a halt.

Joanne Hiller of Island Estates in Clearwater Beach said: "There are now a lot of properties to choose from and we are starting to see investors come back to the table. We are also seeing some foreign investment."

Hiller believes the market in her area bottomed in June, although she's not predicting a rapid recovery across the state.

"Miami was the hardest hit area in Florida, because it built so many condos. It will be the last to recover. Around Clearwater I would say there is excellent value in condos and I think single family homes will come back," she said.

However, Beloise predicts a bumpy ride ahead. He says the banks are pushing through a lot of "short sale" foreclosures, which could depress prices in the short term.

"There's going to be a bumpy time as the foreclosures go through. You are going to see 10 to 15 foreclosures in one area, and that will affect the neighborhood. But this isn't going to go on for years," he said.

Over the longer term, he's confident of a full recovery.

"It really is worth buying here. I've been all round the world and the beach is unparalleled," he said.

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