The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been constantly producing shocking predictions on global-scale climate changes. As a researcher with long experience in the study of Taiwan's natural environment, I would like to give my views on related past and possible future tendencies and trends.
Average annual temperatures are the best statistics for broader, overall comparisons. Prior to the 1980s, the average temperature in Taiwan's nine major cities was 22.7oC. The annual average over the nine years from 1998 to 2005 was higher than the global average. Last year, the average was 24.2oC, 1.5oC higher than in the past. In 1998, a year with an exceptionally strong El Nino, the average hit 24.4oC, 1.7oC higher than the historical average. But this data hardly reflects the true impact on the ecosystem, and even a century-long change may not be as influential as a one-time event, such as deforestation.
For example, according to a weather station on Alishan, the average annual temperature in that area was 15.9oC in 1912. However, following logging and the resulting deforestation, the average rose to 19.6oC the next year, an increase of 3.7oC. Thus, the actual causes that lead to disaster or to drastic changes are best controlled by looking for these extreme statistical values, known as statistical outliers.
So called "abnormal" climate changes refer to a situation where meteorological factors change at a pace that is faster than the rate of biological adjustment and evolution. This causes abnormal mass die offs and extinctions, rapid increases in species, or the breaking of ecological chains.
There are statistical outliers that cause severe damage to the ecosystem and destroy life, such as extremely high or low temperatures, storms, damage from cold spells, instantaneous deaths, and climate disruptions. Some examples are the extreme snow and cold that occurred on March 4, 2005, the severe foehn winds on Aug. 31, 2005, and the droughts between 2001 and 2002. Such statistical outliers can cause abnormal damage, either death or the rapid growth of species, along with other chain reactions such as mutations, pathological changes, epidemics and disasters. Since the distribution of such statistical outliers goes up and down sharply, graphs look like shark's teeth, and so I call them "tooth crises."
Here are some overall past tendencies that are about to deteriorate further together with future tendencies in Taiwan.
Water volume in rivers has decreased, and violent flood peaks have increased. The water line has moved northward, and the droughts in the south have become more serious. Local sand storms will occur repeatedly near the rivers in eastern Taiwan. Increasing sea levels will cause the severest corrosion in Taiwan's southwestern coastal areas, followed by the Ilan Plain. The rapid death of beefwood serving as windbreaks in Hsinchu and all along the west coast will lead to increased sand blow.
The salinization of coastal soil will continue. The productivity of the agricultural, forestry, fishery and livestock industries will drop. Unpredictable outbreaks of animal, plant, or human diseases caused by insects, viruses and bacteria will become rampant. Typhoon strength and various environmental factors will become more extreme, repeatedly reaching new highs, while the forest ecology will collapse partially making mudslides and other natural disasters more frequent and severe. The competition for water resources will intensify confrontation between local governments. Climate change will further intensify the gap between the nation's rich and poor.
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