One of the most interesting aspects, at this early stage, of the maneuvering to secure nominations for next year's presidential election is Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng's (王金平) role as a spoiler for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
Wang has yet to officially declare that he is running for the presidency. Well, that's not entirely accurate; he declared his candidacy one day, and then denied that he had declared it the next. In some countries, that sort of flip-flopping would be frowned upon, but in Taiwanese politics, it is considered a gift.
So who really knows? It is not only unclear if Wang has decided to run, but it is also not clear if Wang has not decided not to run. At the very least, it is clear that he has not yet said that he would not take part in the presidential race if he were not declared a candidate after not taking part in his party's primary.
So it's all very straightforward, really. He probably isn't running. Maybe. Yet.
Nevertheless, Wang is talking like a contender. And if he talks the talk, maybe he'll walk the walk.
For Wang to shoot for the presidency next year seems to be against all odds and reason. He has no realistic chance of winning the race. Wang is not just a dark horse, he's a dark donkey whose knobby little legs are -- sadly -- simply incapable of carrying him to victory.
There is usually something poignant about watching a sad little character hopelessly struggle against forces beyond his reckoning, but this is politics. There is no place for lachrymose odes to egos that balloon into reckless enormity.
It could be that pure egotism is driving Wang along, but given the man's abilities as a political ass-coverer, it seems unlikely that he is walking this path without some hope of advancing his interests.
The legislative speaker is well-suited, after all, for his career as KMT bag-man -- the fixer who is everywhere and knows everyone. Wang maybe a stubby-legged donkey (metaphorically speaking), but he is a proven packhorse who waddles around carrying giant sacks stuffed with a cornucopia of political tools gathered over a lifetime.
The speaker has the goods on just about everyone, which is why he is where he is today. He knows where the bodies are buried and in whose closets the skeletons reside. Elite thoroughbred? No. Devious pragmatist? Absolutely.
So why is he so obviously trying to scuttle the KMT's chances of winning the presidential election? For an answer to that, one should look into the past to uncover the trends of the future.
Wang may be far more devious than one thinks. He might be the lesser model of a consummate political strategist.
In short, Wang may not even know it, but he is proving himself to be a sleeper agent influenced by the Machiavellian mastermind who was at the center of Taiwanese political machinations for years: former president Lee Teng-hui (
That is the conclusion to draw from Wang's apparent insistence on ensuring that the presidential election looks eerily similar to the poll in 2000.
Wang's mission is, put simply, to split the pan-blue vote and ensure a pan-green victory. This will stave off -- for four more years -- the KMT's inevitable capitulation to the Chinese Communist Party, and will preserve Taiwan's de facto independence.
Nothing could be dearer to Lee's heart.
Whether you like the former president and agree with his politics is irrelevant. His career has lessons for any would-be political leader. Lee recognized the inherent ideological hollowness of a political party for what it is: an opportunity.
Political true believers -- of whom there are many -- think that a political party's ideology is important. They buy into the party line and embrace its platform. But a political genius -- whether a dangerous megalomaniac or a beneficent philosopher-king -- merely uses the party as a vessel to advance his or her own ideology.
A political genius transcends their party.
This is why a man who spent a lifetime in the KMT, with its cult of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) and its feeble yearning for a long-dead "Republic of China" that never-was, could turn around when he came to power and come as close to declaring an independent Taiwan as any leader has yet done.
Lee never cared about the fortunes of the KMT or the Republic of China. But he did care about Taiwan. He saw it ruled by Japanese colonial administrators and he saw it ruled by Chinese colonial dictators, but he always saw it as his home.
It is easy to look at Lee's support of his uncharismatic, politically maladroit vice president Lien Chan (連戰) as the KMT's presidential candidate in 2000 and think it was merely a bad choice. But that ignores all that went before.
After becoming KMT chairman -- amidst deep distrust from party elders -- Lee appointed a majority of Taiwanese to the KMT's Central Standing Committee in 1988. This marked the first time that Mainlanders did not hold a majority in this party organization.
He also oversaw the first democratic elections for the Legislative Yuan (in 1991) and the presidency (in 1996) since the KMT came to Taiwan.
And, one shouldn't ignore Lee's provocative 1996 declaration that Taiwan enjoyed a "special state-to-state relationship" with China.
So in 2000, Lee did not make a mistake by nominating Lien. No, he used James Soong's (
The rest is history, as they say. Soong's disastrous decision brought about defeat for the pan-blues, ended decades of KMT rule and ushered in the administration of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁). The years since 2000 may have been good or bad for Taiwan, depending on your point of view, but no one can say that they thought unification (or annexation) was on the cards.
Now fast-forward to next year.
The KMT's all-but anointed candidate, former chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), is a sophisticated political operator who constantly controls his image and his message. Still, this is big boy politics and Ma has taken his hits, including a problematic indictment on corruption charges. He may well go to jail.
But the KMT believes rules are made to be broken, and since the pan-blues control the legislature, they can play with the rules pretty damn effectively.
So if they believe that Ma's the man to bring them back to power, you can bet he'll be in the race.
Then Wang comes along and screws everything up.
There is a sad reality about being a minority group in a democracy -- it is hard for you to get anything done without the help of parts of the majority.
So when Wang starts agitating about ethnic issues and starts pulling at the loose threads hanging at the edges of the KMT's well-tailored victory plan, you can bet that there are some uneasy heads resting on giant "White Sun, Blue Sky" pillowcases tonight. And in their dreams, the ghost of Lee Teng-hui haunts them.
Because it may turn out that, in his heart, Wang is more a patriot than a party hack.
Yang Chien-hsin is a political commentator based in Taipei.
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