All of this does not mean that there are necessarily "radicals" and "moderates" within the clerical regime in Tehran. Those pulling the IRGC's chain are themselves committed to a revolutionary agenda and doubtless want a nuclear weapon as badly as the Pasdaran commanders.
One of the alleged reasons Khamenei didn't want Rafsanjani as president was because he was not keen enough on the nuclear program. The Iranian regime is not, however, a totalitarian juggernaut; there are important splits within the leadership and there is an important faction that does not want Iran to be isolated. The IRGC has evolved into something like a mafia organization, with extensive economic interests that lead both to corruption and potential vulnerability to sanctions imposed by the international community.
It is important to remember that those who were responsible for taking the British forces captive wanted an escalation of the confrontation, both to improve their domestic standing and to punch back for sanctions that were beginning to bite. This suggests that what the Bush administration has been doing -- slowly ratcheting up the pressure through the use of diplomacy to create an international coalition that now includes the Russians -- is the proper course to be on.
Francis Fukuyama is dean of the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and chairman of the American Interest.
Copyright: Project Syndicate/The American Interest
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