When negotiations start this December for a deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, China and India will resist binding targets to reduce emissions. New Delhi will probably seek technology to reduce carbon emissions from its power plants. At most, Beijing might agree to goals on energy efficiency and greater use of alternatives to coal and oil.
Shame could prove the great motivator.
"The whole world will soon say to China, `You are the number one emitter. You have got to do something,'" said Jeffrey Sachs, head of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.
Speaking at a recent lecture in Beijing, Sachs said China needed to move quickly towards clean coal and carbon capture technology.
"The safe use of fossil fuels is the single most important source of hope in China and India," he said.
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