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Editorial: Complex road ahead for the KMT

By now, almost everyone is pretty certain that Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) has a fairly concrete plan to run in the 2008 presidential election. While former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has long been considered the KMT's best chance of winning the presidency next year, his indictment on embezzlement charges and ensuing resignation from the post of KMT chairman has left the door open for Wang to try to win the party's nomination.

Wang's recent comments and moves show that he is both building up momentum and trying to gauge his chances of winning his party's nomination.

Only last week, when asked whether he would run in the upcoming by-election for the KMT chairmanship, he gave an unequivocal "no," followed by the explanation that he needed to focus on preparing for the presidential election and his work as legislative speaker. While Wang later denied that his answer was intended to express a plan to run for the presidency, his very actions say otherwise.

There are even reports that in private discussions he has raised the issue of the possibility of Ma being barred from the presidency should he be found guilty of embezzlement.

Wang's open support for the possibility of former chairman Lien Chan (連戰) to come back to serve as the KMT chairman is not irrelevant. It is no secret that Wang has a very good relationship with Lien. On the other hand, the relationship between Lien and Ma is believed to be riddled with tension.

With Lien back as party chairman post, he would be in a good position to use his connections to consolidate the party's support and resources behind Wang in the primary and the presidential elections.

What is keeping Wang from formally declaring his plan obviously has much to do with Ma. Not only did Ma defeat Wang by an embarrassingly large margin in the last KMT chairmanship election, but even after his indictment, Ma continues to obtain more popular support than Wang.

For wang to win the KMT nomination could require that the party decide it cannot support Ma because of his indictment.

It was, after all, during Ma's tenure as KMT chairman that the party passed a black-gold exclusion clause that requires the suspension of party membership from the party for indictment -- as opposed to conviction -- on criminal charges.

It is obvious that Ma is determined to run in the presidential election. If so required, he would probably run as an independent. This was evidenced when he declared his plan to run in the presidential election immediately after being formally indicted. Without the backing of the KMT, however Ma's chances of attaining the presidency would weaken.

His popularity could nevertheless divert enough votes from any candidates nominated by the KMT or the pan blue to keep them from being elected.

How the KMT will deal with all these elements remains to be seen.
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