Yet opposition to Sarkozy remains high, and not only among minorities and young people, who have registered to vote in high numbers, supposedly to oppose him and his heavy use of the police in the banlieues.
"Bonaparte" may be about to triumph easily over "Joan of Arc," as some foreign commentators like to describe the two leading candidates, but Sarkozy's supposedly "Bonapartist" qualities have fueled a potent sense of apprehension.
Reservations
In fact, the persistence of strong reservations about both Royal and Sarkozy helps explain the surge in popularity for a third contender, UDF candidate Francois Bayrou, a traditional centrist, pro-European politician.
Bayrou has never had it so good but, barring the unlikely collapse of one of the two leading candidates' campaigns, he will fail to qualify for the second-round runoff.
In our media-dominated age, personalities ultimately matter more than programs, which means that elimination prevails over selection. That process seems to favor Sarkozy. An anybody-but-Sarkozy reflex may exist in some circles of French society but, in order to prevail, a credible alternative is required. So far, Royal has failed to play that role.
Dominique Moisi, a founder of and senior adviser at the French Institute for International Relations, is also a professor at the College of Europe in Natolin, Warsaw.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
RSS