US tones down criticism of Chen

On Jan. 26, President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) met former leaders of five countries at a global forum on new democracies at which he advocated that Taiwan create a new constitution and apply to join the UN under the name "Taiwan."

On Jan. 27, he repeated his announcement to the world on CNN. It is generally assumed that his aim is to win himself the mantle of "godfather of Taiwanese independence," deflect attention from the scandals surrounding him and set the tone for the coming elections. There is certainly reason to believe these are his motives.

But this is not the first time Chen has played the "new constitution" card. Both the US and China have put heavy pressure on him when he has done so in the past. But this time he may not be worried about pressure from the US and China.

Campaigning a new constitution may be an old trick, but this time it has a new significance both domestically and internationally.

Although some high-level political academics in Beijing have reacted to Chen's ideas by saying that China cannot sit idly by and let Taiwan legislate its independence, the Chinese government appears to have another take on the issue.

After Chen's New Year's address, China's Taiwan Affairs Office waited two weeks before issuing an announcement saying that this year would be "a key year for opposing Taiwanese independence."

Then, after Chen made his announcement at the forum on Jan. 26, China was surprisingly silent for three days. Amazingly, the US also refrained from comment. Even the American Institute in Taiwan and the US State Department didn't issue their standard responses.

This unusual situation demonstrated that the US and China were carefully considering how to respond. This consideration has been prompted by changes in global politics.

Only a year has passed since the last time Chen proposed a new constitution. The first time he did so was in October 2003.

But over the last year, the US and China have experienced major changes.

To defend its position in East Asia, the US has been attempting to create a defensive chain of islands in the Pacific and draw India into a strategic partnership. The idea is that it will have access to strategic positions to the south and east of China.

The US is also trying to gain control over the Indian Ocean and the Straits of Malacca, vital shipping routes for Chinese oil.

But that strategy is not working out as hoped. The chain of Pacific islands is proving ineffective. China has already established a chain of bases stretching from Pakistan to China's Hainan Island and it has had intermittent success in drawing India into a partnership.

North Korea's nuclear test last year shattered the US' strategy for the Pacific. Not only is the US unable to "surround" China, but the scope of its power has been contained by China, North Korea and Russia.

The US is now pressed to quickly strengthen its alliance with Japan and Taiwan's strategic importance to the US has also risen rapidly. This is why the US has not reacted in its usual manner to Chen's behavior.

There have been other signs indicating a change in the US' attitude toward Chen, as well. At the beginning of last month, the US allowed Chen to stop in California on his way to Latin America.

When diplomatic and military heads from the US and Japan meet for a conference in this month, issues relating to the Taiwan Strait will be high on the agenda.

As for China's attitude toward Taiwanese independence, it has learned since the 1990s that sabre rattling produces the opposite of the effect desired.

China therefore adopted a strategy of pressuring Taiwan indirectly through its connections with the US.

This approach has already proven effective, as demonstrated by the US' harsh criticism of Chen when he scrapped the National Unification Council.

With these major developments in the international scene, Chen is seizing his opportunity.

He has carefully crafted his message, emphasizing that joining the UN under the name "Taiwan" doesn't violate his "four noes, one without" pledge and that a new constitution is intended only to further Taiwan's democratization.

Chen is betting that the US won't criticize his moves.

He seems to have guessed right, because the US still hasn't responded negatively.

Its public reaction came from Raymond Burghardt, chairman of the board of the AIT, who said only that US-Taiwan relations remained stable. This took away China's option to pressure Taiwan through the US, and it is now scratching its head trying to decide how to respond.

China two main objectives when it comes to Taiwan. First, it wants to suppress official Taiwanese independence.

Second, it doesn't want to inadvertently stir up Taiwanese nationalist sentiments by rattling a sabre at Taiwan. China realizes that would probably destroy its hopes for a pro-China president next year.

This kind of delicate manipulation requires a high degree of intelligence and skill. But China can't dawdle in deciding how to act towards Taiwan, lest it inadvertently fuel the movement for official independence.

Regardless how China reacts, Chen has already successfully used developments in the international environment to break the US' and China's joint marginalization of Taiwan.

He has also aggravated the constant headache that both of them have over the issue. Whether this will be a blessing or a disaster for Taiwan remains to be seen. But it is certain that unlike his predecessor, he has dispensed with diplomatic niceties.

Emerson Chang is the director of the Department of International Studies at Nan Hua University. Translated by Marc Langer