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China gauging US resolve with test

Beijing's decision to launch a ground-based ballistic missile to destroy one of its weather satellites on Jan. 11 has left many scratching their heads about what it seeking to accomplish.

The decision to test this sophisticated new weapon was not random, but rather part of a strategy to gain military respect and manifest China's dissatisfaction with the latest developments in the US-Japan military alliance.

China's satellite interception test was a way to counteract the efforts by the US and Japan to contain China. Since Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office last September, he has been employing a two-pronged strategic approach.

On the one hand, he visited China last October to show that his pursuit of reconciliation with China is sincere and to pacify anti-Japanese sentiment in China in a low-profile manner.

On the other hand, Abe sought to take advantage of the US' problems concerning North Korea and Iraq to strengthen military cooperation between his country and the US, particularly on the deployment of the theater-range ballistic missile defense system, clear evidence that Japan and the US aim to contain China.

As China's diplomatic strategy has failed to reverse the revival of Japanese militarism, Beijing feels it must give Japan a warning.

In what is to Chinese eyes symbolic of the revival of Japanese militarism, Abe earlier this month formally upgraded Japan's Defense Agency to the status of Defense Ministry, a move that seems more serious than former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's visits to the Yasukuni shrine.

The Chinese have in the past punished Japan for such actions, but this time it kept a surprisingly low profile, a far cry from the Chinese media, which reported Japan's move as a threat.

It seems to me that the Chinese government already had a well thought out plan and was not worried about being criticized for inaction and weakness by the Chinese media or nationalists.

By taking military action, China avoids looking like a paper tiger. Aside from the strengthening of the US-Japan alliance, other Japanese decisions have also unnerved China: the proposition by neoconservative forces within Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to develop nuclear weapons, the drafting of a new constitution by the LDP to have the Self-Defense Forces re-designated as a Self Defense Army and allow Japan the right of collective self-defense overseas and the LDP's Jan. 7 announcement of the outline of a basic space law allowing a space development program for self-defense purposes.

China must have worried that responding to this situation with another verbal warning would make it look like a toothless paper tiger and that is why it chose a military move to force the US and Japan to consider the cost of what China sees as their hostility.

Abe is also trying to strengthen Japan's relationship with NATO in the hope that Japan will be given a more important role in global security. This is perceived by China as an additional threat. Abe feels Japan can assist in the global war on terror and make contributions toward a peaceful solution to the situation in Afghanistan and Iraq.

At the NATO summit in November, US President George W. Bush suggested that NATO build a new global partnership with Japan, South Korea and Australia, a suggestion that was opposed by France.

This made France the most important stop on Abe's tour of four EU countries earlier this month. While in Europe, Abe frequently raised the "China threat" and encouraged the EU to maintain its arms embargo against China.

Japan's continued hostility did not provide China with a reason to change its original plan. As a result, it shot down the satellite to protest Japan's elevation of the defense agency to ministerial level.

The incident is neither isolated nor random. On Oct. 26 last year, China's Song class diesel-electric attack submarines stalked the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier battle group in the waters off the Ryukyu Islands.

The US kept a lid on the incident, which was not revealed by the media until the day after US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Gary Roughead traveled to China on Nov. 12 to demand an explanation.

Both incidents clearly show China's intent to test the US' strength and determination. The US reacted uncertainly to both incidents.

The US is wary of any increase in tensions with China, as this would have a negative impact on attempts to solve the North Korea and Iran nuclear issues and the instability caused by the war in Iraq.

As the US seeks to avoid giving Beijing the impression that it is a hegemon, it is for the time being responding to China's changing strategies with a great deal of caution. US hesitation will encourage Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) to return to China's "peaceful rise" strategy, albeit with a focus on "rise" rather than "peaceful."

Emerson Chang is director of the Department of International Studies at Nan Hua University.

Translated by Daniel Cheng and Perry Svensson
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