If Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wants to be perceived as a true potential leader of the country, he needs to take a stronger position to protect the national security of Taiwan and not be seen as too soft towards China. At the same time, he also cannot be seen to be a puppet of the US.
One way Ma can change his image as an academic technocrat, loosely translated as a weak military leader, is to come out strongly in favor of an arms procurement bill that offers a viable solution to the impasse in the legislature. It would also show his ability to lead his party and engage with the legislature.
However, for this to be successful, it needs to be carefully calculated and implemented at the right time and with the right support.
Any arms procurement bill will face opposition, but if Ma can limit his criticism, he will come out stronger than if he were to avoid taking a stance altogether, allowing his critics to attack him from all sides.
If we follow the crude sequential model by National Taiwan University professor Wu Yu-shan (吳玉山), who is also a distinguished research fellow and director at the Institute of Political Science in Academia Sinica, the presidential elections in both Taiwan and the US in 2008 will bring hardline policies toward China.
Similar policies toward Taiwan can be expected from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Standing Committee selections this year. But after each political cycle, policies will tilt toward a softer approach and provide more stability in the international arena.
This would mean that before this year, any hardline policies geared toward China could increase tension and lead to instability in the region.
Once the CCP Politburo selection is complete, China will soften its rhetoric -- perhaps more so because it is preparing for the highly anticipated 2008 Summer Olympics. So before the US and Taiwan presidential elections, Ma can push through a tough arms procurement package that can satisfy the US, protect Taiwan's national security, modernize and support Taiwan's military, while limiting China's objections.
However, any arms procurement bill pushed by Ma would need to be revised and authored by Ma to show his ability to solve the arms procurement problem as well as resolve the stall in the legislature.
He would be able to prove that he is competent to become the commander-in-chief of Taiwan's military establishment by providing it with the necessary equipment to modernize.
If Ma plays his cards right, he will be able to limit domestic criticism as well as cool objections from both the US and China. By taking a firm position and pushing through his own version of the arms procurement bill, Ma would position himself as the true leader of Taiwan's future.
But if Ma fails to take a stand, he will have a steeper hill to climb to reach his presidential dreams.
Joshua Chengyung Fu
Taipei
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