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Turkmen authorities plump for continuity

"It's not good to have Western-style elections in a country where everything was under the control of one man for a long time."

Niyazgul, lawyer

Following the death of longtime leader Saparmurat Niyazov, authorities in Turkmenistan have chosen as heir apparent a presidential loyalist likely to preserve the autocratic regime, observers said on Wednesday.

Deputy Prime Minister Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov was appointed caretaker president by the State Security Council in the hours after the death last Thursday of Niyazov, who ruled the country as uncontested leader for 21 years.

On Tuesday, a meeting of the People's Council, the highest legal body in the country, unanimously approved Berdymukhammedov as the main candidate in elections set for Feb. 11 and selected five other candidates.

"It looks like Berdymukhammedov will become president. Another question is if he's going to be a puppet or if he is a more independent player," said Dosym Satpayev, an analyst at the Risk Assessment Group thinktank, based in Kazakhstan.

Analysts have said Turkmenistan's security apparatus, made up of the interior ministry, the MNB security service and the presidential guard, wields real power in the country and have played down calls by the exiled opposition for democratic reforms as unrealistic.

"Those who stayed in their posts alive and unharmed in Ashgabat will divide up the cake of power between themselves and will not allow anyone else to have any of it," Arkady Dubnov, a Central Asia expert, wrote in Russia's Vremya Novostei newspaper.

On Tuesday, Khudaiberdy Orazov, a former deputy prime minister of Turkmenistan, who now leads the Watan (Homeland) opposition party and lives in Sweden, declared himself as a candidate in the presidential election.

"So far, we can see they are not going to follow the path of democracy. To be honest, we did not expect an immediate change," said Nurmukhammed Khanamov, now head of the Republican opposition party, living in Austria.

Berdymukhammedov was often shown Niyazov's side at official meetings. He also helped steer some of his most repressive policies, such as the closure of all medical facilities in the countryside and the sacking of 15,000 medical workers because of budget cuts.

Ordinary Turkmens appeared unmoved by the prospect of pre-determined elections.

"Almost every day, Berdymukhammedov comes on television and says he will not change the course of the Great Leader. I think that's as it should be. We don't need sudden changes or shocks," said Amanniyaz-aga, a 70-year-old farmer.

Niyazgul, a 33-year-old lawyer, said: "It's not good to have Western-style elections in a country where everything was under the control of one man for a long time. Doing that in the East is dangerous. There could be social tension."

Berdymukhammedov has repeatedly promised stability in Turkmenistan and has vowed to follow the "democratic" course set by Niyazov.

Analysts have questioned, however, whether he will keep in place repressive policies that critics say have impoverished ordinary Turkmens or seek to carry out some reforms as Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev did after Stalin's rule.
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