Little room left for a third force

The elections for Taipei and Kaohsiung mayors and city councilors are over. The Chinese Nationalist Party's (KMT) candidate Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) won the mayoral seat in Taipei, while the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) candidate Chen Chu (陳菊) won in Kaohsiung.

Although the elections were for two cities, they surely will have an impact on Taiwan's political situation.

For the election in Taipei, the key factor still resided in the relatively stable structure of voters, as the pan-blue camp outweighs the pan-greens in the city. With a strong pan-blue camp, Hau's win was not surprising.

Four years ago, Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) won 64 percent of the vote against his DPP challenger Lee Ying-yuan's (李應元) 36 percent.

This time around, because he enjoyed the highest support ratings among all the candidates during the campaign, Hau was a target of attacks from the beginning.

Despite these, the former head of the Environmental Protection Administration was able to retain this support and eventually won the capital, attracting about 54 percent of the vote.

Obviously, voters believed in him and wanted to give him a chance.

The results are also a hint that Ma's policies are likely to be continued in the future. But Hau is not Ma's first priority and has his own opinions. Whether he will listen to Ma remains an open question.

DPP rival Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), though suffering the impact of the Kaohsiung MRT scandal, managed to overcome obstacles and maintain the DPP's support base in Taipei, securing about 41 percent of the vote.

Hsieh was criticized for lacking sincerity as he entered the election reluctantly at first, but he did better and better as the campaign progressed.

He was hoping to gain from a pan-blue camp split. This did not eventuate, as the pan-blues' supporters focused their vote on Hau as a result of strategic voting considerations.

Although Hsieh lost the election, he is a winner and has more possibilities ahead of him.

Generally, there were two political meanings behind the election this time.

First, "two-party politics" (兩黨政治) has re-formed in Taiwan, and there is not much room for a third force.

This is why People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), who was running for Taipei mayor as an independent candidate, and the Taiwan Solidarity Union's (TSU) Kaohsiung mayoral candidate, Lo Chih-ming (羅志明), were dumped through strategic voting.

Soong has announced he will withdraw from politics after losing the election, and his political influence will further weaken. In the face of a growing KMT, he seems to have fewer bargaining chips in his hand.

Second, the media's view is somewhat different to that of voters -- especially grassroots voters.

As the media accuses President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) of corruption, grassroots voters clearly expressed their own voice through their ballots, showing a sense of autonomy in the face of the views propagated by the media.

What impact will the results have on the legislative elections next year under the new "single-member district, two-vote system" (單一選區兩票制) ? The KMT is the biggest party in the Legislative Yuan, with 90 seats.

The PFP still has 22 legislators, but some of them may return to the KMT after the defeat in order to secure a KMT nomination for the legislative elections.

The DPP still has 84 seats. However, under the new electoral system, the situation appears unfavorable to the party.

The TSU holds 12 seats, but the situation is even more unfavorable for this small party.

Finally, regarding the future impact on the presidential elections in 2008, Ma is still the pan-blue camp's favorite. However, the defeat of the KMT's Kaohsiung mayoral candidate Huang Chun-ying (黃俊英) is certainly frustrating for the KMT.

Moreover, because of conflict between the KMT and the PFP during the campaign, as well as internal power struggles, Ma would have to mend his relations with other allies to stabilize his support base.

For the DPP, Chairman Yu Shyi-kun is likely to stay in his post. After winning Kaohsiung, his position is quite stable.

Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) is currently in an awkward position, however. Since he attempted to draw a line between himself and the president during the campaign, the party's supporters may blame him for destroying the unity of the pan-green camp.

As for the president himself, his power is more stable after winning Kaohsiung, so he will continue to play a key role in the next 18 months before he leaves office.

Ku Chung-hwa is a professor in the Department of Sociology at National Chengchi University.

COMPILED BY EDDY CHANG