While both the US and China ponder the impact of their interdependence on bilateral diplomacy, they are both keeping an eye on Taiwan's internal changes.
There will be a new Taiwanese administration in about a year and a half, and the two major parties both seem determined to follow what are increasingly different objectives.
Beijing will continue to seek Taiwan's unification with China. How that can be done depends on which of Taiwan's two main political parties is in power.
US policy likewise will depend on this. Taiwan could accept being part of China, on one hand, or move toward full de jure independence. Either option will have an impact on US regional priorities.
One would assume that if it is the former, US policy toward Taiwan might be more similar to policy toward China.
If it is the latter, making a greater effort to support some form of Taiwanese participation in the international community might be given more effort.
But I suspect that the pursuit of that goal will be given much the same amount of attention as it is now.
One other possibility is a greater effort at supporting Taiwan in working with others to promote democracy.
There seems, in some circles, to be more interest than in the past in emphasizing the advantages of Singapore's ASEAN values system, or even Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" formula, as a step toward democracy.
Taiwan, with its democracy, is in a unique position to challenge those views. It is difficult to hide Taiwan's example in the Internet age.
While the government of China filters what is happening in Taiwan, the people there are well aware of how the Taiwanese are dealing with corruption and the laws of a real democracy. In any event, the US in some way should support pro-democracy activities.
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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