On Nov. 16, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission's annual report was released to Congress and the public. The report had a broad mandate -- to "evaluate how the US relationship with China affects the economic health of the US and its industrial base, the military and weapons proliferation dangers China poses to the US, and the US political standing and influence in Asia."
All of these issues are of as much interest to Taiwan as they are to the US.
For the most part, however, the Taiwanese media has focused on one element of the report's recommendations -- that the administration of US President George W. Bush should implement a long-term policy to assist Taiwan's participation in the international community.
There is a connection, of course.
The commission is a nonpartisan organization established by Congress. Its basic concern, especially after the Congressional elections, is that the economic relationship with China could change dramatically.
The huge amount of production that has shifted to China from the US has already begun to impact seriously on producers, services and buyers in the US.
Doubtless there are economists who may not agree. Within the executive branch, there is usually little support for strategic assessments developed by Congress.
In fact, a large group of Cabinet officials headed by the treasury secretary will be going to China to press for change in many of China's economic policies.
Their effort may push through some important policy changes, but that is unlikely to be enough. It also does not include security issues and regional political matters.
In its relationship with the US, Taiwan is already well aware that there are times when economic policies will clash with security and political policies.
Such a situation -- in the US and Taiwan -- is likely to have domestic political repercussions.
In addition, one of the commission's recommendations was to help Taiwan expand its international activities. The US abides by the Three Communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA).
The TRA, Section 4, Part D, states that "Nothing in this act may be construed as a basis for supporting the exclusion or expulsion of Taiwan from continued membership in any international financial institution or any other international organization."
Unfortunately, in the days when the US had far more power in the international community, this commitment was not strongly pursued.
More recently, the best the US can do is rally other friendly states to help it, though increasingly even that has become unlikely. With China's rise, the problem has become more China's ability to constrain Taiwan's international participation.
So implementing a long-term policy to facilitate Taiwan's participation in international organizations, as the commission's recommendation suggests, may be a bit late. Perhaps. It depends on the future character of the US-China relationship.
A sharp downturn in China's rise could be caused by any number of domestic problems: water, oil consumption, environmental degradation and the impact of high tech opening, among others.
According to the commission, in addition to the US' concerns about the impact on the US economy of the migration of production to China, there is also the problem of China's military buildup and the implications that this has on US strategic interest in the Pacific.
While both the US and China ponder the impact of their interdependence on bilateral diplomacy, they are both keeping an eye on Taiwan's internal changes.
There will be a new Taiwanese administration in about a year and a half, and the two major parties both seem determined to follow what are increasingly different objectives.
Beijing will continue to seek Taiwan's unification with China. How that can be done depends on which of Taiwan's two main political parties is in power.
US policy likewise will depend on this. Taiwan could accept being part of China, on one hand, or move toward full de jure independence. Either option will have an impact on US regional priorities.
One would assume that if it is the former, US policy toward Taiwan might be more similar to policy toward China.
If it is the latter, making a greater effort to support some form of Taiwanese participation in the international community might be given more effort.
But I suspect that the pursuit of that goal will be given much the same amount of attention as it is now.
One other possibility is a greater effort at supporting Taiwan in working with others to promote democracy.
There seems, in some circles, to be more interest than in the past in emphasizing the advantages of Singapore's ASEAN values system, or even Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" formula, as a step toward democracy.
Taiwan, with its democracy, is in a unique position to challenge those views. It is difficult to hide Taiwan's example in the Internet age.
While the government of China filters what is happening in Taiwan, the people there are well aware of how the Taiwanese are dealing with corruption and the laws of a real democracy. In any event, the US in some way should support pro-democracy activities.
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
Former president Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) trip to China provides a pertinent reminder of why Taiwanese protested so vociferously against attempts to force through the cross-strait service trade agreement in 2014 and why, since Ma’s presidential election win in 2012, they have not voted in another Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) candidate. While the nation narrowly avoided tragedy — the treaty would have put Taiwan on the path toward the demobilization of its democracy, which Courtney Donovan Smith wrote about in the Taipei Times in “With the Sunflower movement Taiwan dodged a bullet” — Ma’s political swansong in China, which included fawning dithyrambs