Until now, discovery was often considered the main goal of medical science. But nowadays discovery is almost too easy. Anyone with a little funding and a few biological specimens in a refrigerator is likely to produce thousands of postulated "discoveries."
Indeed, the number of research questions that we can ask is increasing exponentially. Medical kits the size of a thumbnail can measure a million different biological factors on an individual with an infinitesimal amount of blood. A million research questions can be asked on the spot. But even with proper statistical testing, many tens of thousands of these biological factors may seem to be important due to mere chance. Only a handful of them really will be. The vast majority of these initial research claims would yield only spurious findings.
So the main issue nowadays is to validate "discoveries" by replicating them under different settings. Several different teams of researchers need to see them work again and again using common rules. Moreover, all the teams should agree not to select and report only the data that seem most likely to impress. With selective reporting, we would end up with a long list of all the false discoveries made across all research teams, with only a few true findings buried among this pile of non-replicated waste.
In fact, empirical data suggest the significance of this danger. In a paper in the Journal of the American Medical Association published in July of last year, I showed that refutation is very common, even for the most prestigious research findings. I examined the 45 clinical research findings that had received the greatest recognition in the scientific world, as documented by the number of times other scientists had cited them over the past 15 years.
Even with the most robust types of research -- for example, randomized clinical trials. One-fourth of these results had already been found to be wrong or potentially exaggerated within a few years after publication. For epidemiology -- eg, studies on vitamins, diet, or hormones in terms of their association with health outcomes in the general population -- four-fifths of the most prestigious findings were rapidly contradicted. For molecular research, in the absence of extensive replication, the refutation rate may occasionally exceed 99 percent.
But we should not panic. It is to be expected that the majority of research findings are rapidly contradicted and refuted. Indeed, it is part of how progress of science occurs. We need to adapt to this situation, however. Instead of taking scientific evidence as dogma, we should consider it as tentative information that should be ascribed a level of credibility.
There is nothing wrong with disseminating scientific information that has a credibility of 10 percent, or even 1 percent. Sometimes this will be the best evidence we have. But we should get used to understanding that some research findings have very low credibility, while others may be more likely to stand the test of time. Scientists themselves may be able to ascribe these levels of credibility to their own work if they describe in detail what they set out to do, and how they did it.
Science is a noble pursuit, but genuine progress in scientific research is not easy to achieve. It requires a lot of time, continuous effort, uncompromising integrity, appropriate funding and material support, and unwavering commitment. Proposed scientific advances require careful validation and replication by independent scientists. Scientific knowledge is never final, but it evolves continuously. This is part of the great fascination of science, and it fosters liberty of thought.
While these principles are probably well known to serious scientists, they are often forgotten when scientific information is disseminated. Our society is awash with inflated information, which is inherent to efforts in many human activities -- entertainment, law courts, stock markets, politics and sports, for example -- to gain greater public attention in the framework of mass civilization.
But it would be damaging to expect science to "show off" in this way. Exaggeration contradicts the key hallmarks of scientific reasoning -- critical thinking and careful appraisal of the evidence.
John Ioannidis is professor and chairman at the department of hygiene and epidemiology at the University of Ioannina School of Medicine in Greece and adjunct professor of medicine at Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston, Massachusetts.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Recently, China launched another diplomatic offensive against Taiwan, improperly linking its “one China principle” with UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 to constrain Taiwan’s diplomatic space. After Taiwan’s presidential election on Jan. 13, China persuaded Nauru to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Nauru cited Resolution 2758 in its declaration of the diplomatic break. Subsequently, during the WHO Executive Board meeting that month, Beijing rallied countries including Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Belarus, Egypt, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Laos, Russia, Syria and Pakistan to reiterate the “one China principle” in their statements, and assert that “Resolution 2758 has settled the status of Taiwan” to hinder Taiwan’s
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s (李顯龍) decision to step down after 19 years and hand power to his deputy, Lawrence Wong (黃循財), on May 15 was expected — though, perhaps, not so soon. Most political analysts had been eyeing an end-of-year handover, to ensure more time for Wong to study and shadow the role, ahead of general elections that must be called by November next year. Wong — who is currently both deputy prime minister and minister of finance — would need a combination of fresh ideas, wisdom and experience as he writes the nation’s next chapter. The world that
Can US dialogue and cooperation with the communist dictatorship in Beijing help avert a Taiwan Strait crisis? Or is US President Joe Biden playing into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) hands? With America preoccupied with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, Biden is seeking better relations with Xi’s regime. The goal is to responsibly manage US-China competition and prevent unintended conflict, thereby hoping to create greater space for the two countries to work together in areas where their interests align. The existing wars have already stretched US military resources thin, and the last thing Biden wants is yet another war.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, people have been asking if Taiwan is the next Ukraine. At a G7 meeting of national leaders in January, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida warned that Taiwan “could be the next Ukraine” if Chinese aggression is not checked. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that if Russia is not defeated, then “today, it’s Ukraine, tomorrow it can be Taiwan.” China does not like this rhetoric. Its diplomats ask people to stop saying “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” However, the rhetoric and stated ambition of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on Taiwan shows strong parallels with